Forecast of that law on clarity: Polymarket estimates a 54% probability of adoption by 2026

0xOverleveraged · 2026-02-05T16:13:21+00:00

Recent data from Polymarket suggests a 54% chance that the proposed clarity law for U.S. cryptocurrency legislation will pass by 2026. This reflects market participants’ cautious optimism, indicating significant uncertainty but also a potential game-changing impact for the crypto industry.

0xOverleveraged

2026-02-05 16:13:21

Abstract generation in progress

According to the latest data from the Polymarket prediction platform, the law on clarity currently being drafted by American lawmakers has a 54% chance of being passed by the end of 2026. This estimate reflects the collective judgment of millions of market participants who regularly bet on the development of cryptocurrency legislation.

What does this forecast mean for the industry

The likelihood that the law will be approved within the specified timeframe indicates significant uncertainty around its passage. According to media analyst Odaily, market participants view this as a realistic but not guaranteed outcome. More than half of the scenarios on the platform suggest the bill could succeed, but a substantial portion also considers its failure due to congressional hurdles.

Market dynamics and expectations

This clarity law is seen as a potentially game-changing document for the US crypto industry. It aims to establish a clear regulatory framework for digital assets, which has long been anticipated by market participants. The current 54% estimate shows that investors and traders remain cautious about the timeline for implementation, although the overall trend on Polymarket demonstrates moderate optimism that this legislation will pass through all necessary stages by 2026.

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