Wintermute: This bear market may end faster than in the past, and the market is likely to recover in the second half of the year.
Odaily Planet Daily reports that Wintermute stated on X that it is clear we are in a bear market, and in fact, it has been ongoing for some time — especially when looking at the performance of altcoins, the extreme concentration of rebounds, and market sentiment on X. However, what sets this bear market apart is that it was not triggered by structural collapses like FTX, Luna, or 3AC, but rather by macroeconomic conditions and cyclical trend changes, leading to a relatively natural deleveraging process. The core driving forces are changes in positions, risk appetite, and market narratives.
This point is very critical. Since there have been no bankruptcies or systemic contagion, this cycle may end faster than previous bear markets. Infrastructure is more robust, stablecoins are still growing, and institutional interest has not disappeared — it has only temporarily retreated to a wait-and-see stance. Once the environment improves, attention and capital could quickly return — most likely in the second half of 2026, when macro uncertainties decrease and the Federal Reserve’s policy path becomes clearer.
In the short term, after liquidations, positions have significantly lightened, but market confidence remains insufficient. After two months of range-bound oscillation, we are back to the price discovery phase. It is still too early to discuss any meaningful upward trend, but if one appears, its pattern may be more clearly defined than the reversals seen in previous bear markets — because this time, the crypto ecosystem has not suffered structural damage.
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