#BTC February 2nd 14:30 (Beijing time), Bitcoin is around $76,000, down approximately 3.8% intraday, with a 24H low of $74,601 and a high of $79,226. The market is in extreme panic. Below is the core analysis and forecast.

1. Core Status and Drivers

- Price and Sentiment: Rapid decline from above $83,000, continuous drops since January, with weekly and monthly charts showing weakness; Fear Index around 18, leverage liquidations fueling the selling cycle.

- Macro and Capital: Trump nominates Waller as Federal Reserve Chair, hawkish expectations rise, USD strengthens, funds withdraw from high-risk assets; Bitcoin ETF continues to see net outflows, liquidity declines, buying interest absent.

- Technicals: Daily chart shows a bearish arrangement, breaking below the $77,000-$79,400 consolidation zone; key support at $75,000-$75,500 (double bottom + high-volume area), resistance at $79,000-$80,000 (upper boundary of the range + psychological level).

2. Forecast and Key Levels

- Short-term (1-4 weeks): Likely to consolidate and bottom out, possibly oversold rebound, but with limited strength; strong support at $72,000, breaking below opens further downside.

- Medium-term (1-3 months): Focus on Fed policy, ETF capital flows, regulatory signals; if dovish policy shifts + capital reflows, potential recovery to $79,000-$82,000; otherwise, testing below $70,000.

- Long-term (6-12 months): Halving cycle and liquidity are core factors; if macro conditions loosen + institutional inflows return, resumption of upward trend; otherwise, continued adjustment.

3. Trading Strategy Recommendations

- Prioritize defense, strictly control positions (suggested ≤30%), mainly observe, avoid blindly bottom-fishing.

- If rebound to $78,500-$79,000 encounters resistance, consider small short positions with stop-loss above $80,000.

- If $75,000 volume breaks downward, reduce positions promptly to hedge risk, targeting $72,000; if price stabilizes above $79,000, consider small long positions with stop-loss below $77,000.