Critical test ahead for Bitcoin: Increasing selling pressure despite support attempts

Bitcoin remains close to $81,000, but the calm surface masks a deep controversy between buyers and sellers. Current data show an 8.98% decline over the week, which is not just an ordinary correction but a sign of a shift in the balance of power. The real danger lies not in what investors see on the chart, but in the accumulated pressures beneath the surface.

Candle Warnings and the Rising Wedge Pattern

Daily Bitcoin charts show a doji-like candle pattern, characterized by thin bodies and long wicks, reflecting instability rather than balance. Sellers are pressing from below, late buyers are stepping in, and no one has full control. This behavior repeats at the support level of the rising wedge, a dangerous geometric pattern marked by a gradual increase in the minimum with upward pressure on the price.

The rising wedge slopes upward theoretically, but it gradually narrows the price movement range. When support in this pattern breaks, a sharp downward drift usually follows. Calculated bearish forecasts suggest a potential additional drift of 13%, possibly pushing Bitcoin toward $77,300.

Exponential Moving Average: A Warning Indicator

Bitcoin losing its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) on January 20 was a significant turning point. This indicator gives more weight to recent prices, making it sensitive to short-term shifts. The last time Bitcoin broke below this indicator on December 12, the price retreated by about 8%. This time, the decline slowed to around 5% before current stabilization, but doji-like candles indicate that buyers are trying to delay the fall rather than reverse its direction.

To regain upward momentum, Bitcoin needs a daily close above $91,000, a move of approximately 1.79%. This would reduce immediate downward pressure and signal buyers regaining control. The risk is closer than the current opportunity.

Unexpected Weakness from Long-Term Holders

On-chain data shows that long-term holders—those who hold Bitcoin for 155 days or more—are still net buyers, but their buying pace is decreasing rapidly. On January 19, these holders added about 22,618 BTC. By January 23, net daily purchases dropped to 17,109 BTC, a 24% decrease in less than a week.

This gradual decline in buying strength explains why Bitcoin hasn’t collapsed yet, but it also reveals increasing support weakness. Support exists, yes, but it is steadily diminishing.

Miners Increasing Selling Pressure

The real pressure comes from a less prominent side: Bitcoin miners. Their behavior shift has become critical. On January 9, they were reducing holdings by about 335 BTC, but by January 23, this number rose to 2,826 BTC, an increase of over eight times in selling pressure in just two weeks.

The reason is clear when looking at network fees. Bitcoin monthly fees have plummeted. In May 2025, miners earned about 194 BTC in fees. By January 2026, this dropped to 59 BTC, a decrease of roughly 70%. Lower fees squeeze miners’ profits, pushing them to sell more Bitcoin to cover operational costs.

Whale Behavior Indicates Early Distribution

Whale activity—large holders—has also begun to change. The number of whale addresses steadily increased from January 9 to January 22, then started to decline. This suggests early distribution rather than aggressive selling, but it adds extra pressure on top of the miners’ selling.

Critical Levels to Watch

The market is now at a crossroads between two different scenarios. First, if Bitcoin can close above $91,000, it may regain upward momentum and reduce immediate pressure. Second, if it falls below $88,500, it will return to the rising wedge support, at which point downward targets could accelerate rapidly.

Key levels to monitor are $84,300 first, followed by the rising wedge target near $77,300. If long-term holder weakness persists alongside continued miner selling, these levels become inevitable tests.

What is happening now is not just typical volatility between bulls and bears. It’s a race against time where buyers are trying to delay the larger drift downward, while selling pressure increases from multiple fronts.