Can Gold Break Through $5000?

Currently, spot gold is fluctuating above $4900, just one step away from the $5000 threshold. Considering core drivers and potential risks, the probability of breaking through is high, but short-term pullbacks should be watched for.

The logic supporting a break above $5000 is clear. On the geopolitical front, escalating tensions in the Middle East and intensified global geopolitical games are driving safe-haven buying, becoming the core catalyst for gold prices. On the funding and policy side, the Fed's easing expectations are lowering the cost of holding gold, with the private sector stepping in to increase gold holdings alongside central bank purchases, leaving ample room for reallocation of existing funds. Coupled with the de-dollarization process and ongoing central bank gold purchases, this solidifies long-term support. Institutions like Goldman Sachs have also raised their target price to $5400, reinforcing bullish market sentiment.

Potential risks should not be ignored. The short-term rally has been significant, with resistance around $4976. Diminishing daily momentum could trigger profit-taking, and a correction to the support zone of $4907–$4935 is possible. Additionally, divergence in Fed policies, persistent US inflation, and geopolitical risks could constrain rate cuts. If geopolitical tensions ease temporarily, safe-haven support may weaken.

Overall, breaking through $5000 is highly probable. Operationally, it is recommended to follow the trend, establish long positions after a rebound and stabilization around $4920–$4930, with a stop-loss below $4900. Avoid chasing high prices at the top, strictly control positions. After breaking through, the target can be set around $5061; during pullbacks, rely on key supports for low-level entries. The medium- to long-term bull market remains intact.