Is this good news?

@
#达沃斯世界经济论坛 Cryptocurrency welcomes policy tailwinds, has the turning point arrived?
The Bitcoin payment bill is advancing in multiple states, the Federal Reserve Chair frontrunner's attitude is positive, and market bearish sentiment is quietly shifting—cryptocurrency markets seem to be at the starting point of a new wave.
Morning crypto news pushes are once again filling the screen: Oklahoma has submitted a bill to allow Bitcoin payments; a key hearing on crypto market structure legislation is scheduled for next week; Riot Platforms executives openly state that taxing Bitcoin in the US is "unreasonable."
Meanwhile, funding rate data shows that market bearish sentiment towards Bitcoin and SOL is easing. These signals intertwine, outlining the current policy environment and sentiment shift in the crypto market.
 Policy Tailwinds
The policy environment for cryptocurrencies is quietly changing. The latest bill submitted in Oklahoma directly challenges traditional payment systems, marking another US state-level move to open the door for Bitcoin payments after Florida.
This trend is not isolated; it reflects a growing openness at the local level in the US towards cryptocurrencies. Policymakers are beginning to realize that excessive restrictions could drive innovation overseas.
Crypto market structure legislation will have a key hearing next week, with bipartisan lawmakers proposing amendments. This indicates that cryptocurrencies are moving from regulatory margins toward mainstream legislation, providing clearer compliance pathways for the market.
Although Ukraine's ban on Polymarket appears negative, such incidents are not uncommon during the early development stages of the crypto industry. Crypto-friendly policies are gradually being implemented worldwide, as evidenced by adjustments in Bitcoin tax policies across multiple countries.
Tax Barriers
The promotion of Bitcoin payments still faces significant obstacles, most notably tax policies. Strive executives state plainly: "The biggest obstacle to Bitcoin payments is tax policy."
Currently, US tax policy requires capital gains tax on Bitcoin transactions, making small daily payments complicated and impractical. Riot Platforms executives point out that Bitcoin is tax-exempt in many countries but faces unreasonable tax burdens in the US.
Adjustments to tax policies could become a key catalyst for the widespread adoption of cryptocurrencies. As more countries and state governments consider policy changes, barriers to Bitcoin as a payment method are gradually decreasing.
If the US loosens its tax policies, it could trigger a series of ripple effects, promoting practical applications of Bitcoin in retail and commercial scenarios, thereby supporting its intrinsic value.
Market Sentiment
Funding rate data reveals subtle shifts in market sentiment. Current mainstream CEX and DEX data show that bearish sentiment towards BTC and SOL is easing.
Funding rates are mechanisms in perpetual contracts markets used to balance long and short positions. Positive rates indicate dominance of longs, negative rates indicate dominance of shorts. The narrowing of negative rates suggests short pressure is easing.
This shift in market sentiment is not coincidental. It resonates with the improving policy environment and reflects growing investor confidence in the outlook for cryptocurrencies.
It is worth noting that this sentiment shift is still in early stages, and a clear bullish consensus has not yet formed, which instead provides a good entry point for cautious investors.
Macro Environment
The macro environment also influences the crypto market. The probability of Rick Rieder becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair has risen to 58%, making him the top candidate.
This BlackRock global fixed income chief investment officer is seen as a moderate candidate, with a relatively open attitude towards emerging asset classes. If Rick Rieder indeed takes the helm at the Fed, cryptocurrencies could enjoy a more friendly policy environment.
Federal Reserve policies directly impact global liquidity, which is a key driver for the crypto market. A more accommodative monetary policy environment will benefit risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
It is important to note that Fed personnel changes are just one of many macro variables. Global geopolitical situations, inflation trends, and economic growth prospects will all influence the medium- and long-term performance of cryptocurrencies.
Market Outlook
Based on current policy trends, tax environment changes, market sentiment adjustments, and macro background, the crypto market is at a critical turning point.
Gradually clarifying policies provide a more stable development environment; breakthroughs in tax barriers could unlock the potential of Bitcoin payment scenarios; a gentle shift in market sentiment reflects recovering investor confidence; macro changes could bring more favorable liquidity conditions.
In the short term, the market may continue to oscillate within the current range, awaiting more clear policy signals. In the medium term, with the advancement of crypto market structure legislation and increased adoption of Bitcoin payments in more regions, cryptocurrencies may experience a new wave of value revaluation.
Investors should focus on key events: the outcome of the crypto market structure legislation hearing, progress on more state-level Bitcoin payment bills, and the final results of Fed personnel changes.
---
An interesting detail is that while Oklahoma and Florida promote Bitcoin payment bills, Ukraine has banned the prediction market platform Polymarket on grounds of illegal gambling.
This policy divergence reveals differing perceptions among global regulators regarding cryptocurrencies and also indicates that the crypto market will continue to evolve amid this interplay of divergence and consensus.
Current funding rates show that bearish sentiment has eased, and the market seems to be gathering strength for the next wave. Improving regulatory environments and increased institutional acceptance are laying a more solid foundation for the crypto market.
Policy tailwinds are rising, tax barriers are loosening, and market sentiment is warming—perhaps the crypto winter is quietly coming to an end.