Ethereum has been stuck in a delicate position these days, with the price fluctuating around $2,970. The weekly decline is close to 10%, which looks quite alarming. But from a different perspective, this might just be short-term market noise.

From the fundamentals, the upgrade at the end of last year significantly benefited the network—transaction fees dropped sharply, activity increased accordingly, and on-chain transaction volume and active addresses hit new highs. What does this indicate? It shows that the core competitiveness of this blockchain remains intact. The institutions are also not idle, continuously deploying stablecoins and tokenized assets. Although traditional giants like JPMorgan are cautious, the revival trend of the DeFi ecosystem and the demand for spot ETFs should be enough to support a price rebound.

On the technical side, the $2,850-$2,900 range is a critical defense line and also the position of the long-term moving average. As long as this level holds, the probability of a turnaround is quite high. Currently, market sentiment is indeed not very good, with the fear index around 20, but such extreme pessimism is often a signal for bottom-fishing. Once Bitcoin stabilizes, Ethereum usually follows suit.

Macros are indeed somewhat uncertain—US Treasury yields and Federal Reserve policy directions could bring volatility. However, in the medium term, the benefits from the upgrade and the continuous influx of institutional funds should hedge against these risks.

The upcoming one to two weeks are worth paying attention to: if the price can break through the $3,000 resistance level, the entry opportunity becomes clearer. Short-term volatility is significant, but the medium-term trend should be upward. Whether it can hold above $3,200 by the end of February will be a crucial test.