Is it risky to chase after new highs in spot gold? The key depends on three variables

As spot gold repeatedly hits new highs, debates also arise: is it safe to chase the rally now? The answer isn't simple; it mainly depends on whether three core variables have changed, rather than just the price itself.

First, has the macro risk genuinely eased? If geopolitical tensions cool down and the global economic recovery becomes highly certain, then the safe-haven premium of gold may systematically decline. But from the current situation, this condition has not yet materialized.
Second, is there a reversal in the trend of real interest rates? Gold's true "enemy" is not high interest rates per se, but the sustained rise of real interest rates. Once inflation falls faster than interest rates, pressure on gold will become evident. Currently, this inflection point has not been confirmed.
Third, has the capital structure deteriorated? If the rally is driven entirely by short-term speculation, leading to extreme trading structures, then the risk at high levels will significantly increase. But at present, whether it's central banks, ETFs, or long-term funds, support is still present.

Therefore, a new high in gold does not mean one must blindly chase the rally; instead, it requires distinguishing between trading and allocation. For short-term traders, a confirmed pullback is more important; for medium- to long-term allocators, gold remains an important tool for hedging systemic risk.

The market is always changing, but logic moves slower than prices. As long as the core logic remains intact, high levels in gold are not equivalent to the end point. #现货黄金再创新高