#Gate广场创作者新春激励
Today marks the 582nd day of my posting activity, without a single day missed. Each post is not just perfunctory but carefully prepared. [微笑] If you think I am a serious person, you can walk with me, and I hope the daily content can help you. The world is vast, and I am small. Follow me to avoid losing track. [微笑][微笑]
Trump imposes tariffs on 8 countries, Iran's protests continue, and the global geopolitical risk index rises to its highest since the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. By 2025, the 30-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold has repeatedly exceeded 0.6, something that almost never happened before 2020. Traditionally, BTC is classified as a "risk asset"—rising and falling together with Nasdaq. But in the past two years, its behavior pattern has been changing.
There are several reasons.
First, institutional funds brought by ETFs—the allocation logic of these funds is "portfolio diversification," not "chasing gains and selling off."
Second, the global de-dollarization trend—when the US uses tariffs and sanctions as weapons, other countries begin to seek alternative means of value storage.
But we are not yet at the endgame of "Bitcoin as digital gold." In true market panic (such as the yen arbitrage liquidation in August 2024), BTC will still be indiscriminately sold off. It currently behaves more like a "weak safe-haven asset"—performing well under moderate geopolitical risks but not necessarily immune in systemic collapses.
The current Greenland tariffs and Iran crisis are considered "moderate" risks. Market uncertainty is rising, but it has not reached panic selling levels. This is exactly BTC's comfort zone—enough uncertainty to drive safe-haven demand, but not enough to trigger a liquidity crisis.
Today marks the 582nd day of my posting activity, without a single day missed. Each post is not just perfunctory but carefully prepared. [微笑] If you think I am a serious person, you can walk with me, and I hope the daily content can help you. The world is vast, and I am small. Follow me to avoid losing track. [微笑][微笑]
Trump imposes tariffs on 8 countries, Iran's protests continue, and the global geopolitical risk index rises to its highest since the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. By 2025, the 30-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold has repeatedly exceeded 0.6, something that almost never happened before 2020. Traditionally, BTC is classified as a "risk asset"—rising and falling together with Nasdaq. But in the past two years, its behavior pattern has been changing.
There are several reasons.
First, institutional funds brought by ETFs—the allocation logic of these funds is "portfolio diversification," not "chasing gains and selling off."
Second, the global de-dollarization trend—when the US uses tariffs and sanctions as weapons, other countries begin to seek alternative means of value storage.
But we are not yet at the endgame of "Bitcoin as digital gold." In true market panic (such as the yen arbitrage liquidation in August 2024), BTC will still be indiscriminately sold off. It currently behaves more like a "weak safe-haven asset"—performing well under moderate geopolitical risks but not necessarily immune in systemic collapses.
The current Greenland tariffs and Iran crisis are considered "moderate" risks. Market uncertainty is rising, but it has not reached panic selling levels. This is exactly BTC's comfort zone—enough uncertainty to drive safe-haven demand, but not enough to trigger a liquidity crisis.
