2026-01-19 15:36:46

A trader made $116,589.06 on Polymarket with only a 40% win rate—that's even worse than flipping a coin. But his approach is worth analyzing.

The core is an AI bot that scans for mispriced markets 24/7. In simple terms, it looks for options where the market pricing significantly deviates from the actual probabilities. For example, this guy invested $90 in a weather forecast event and turned it into $4,000 because the system detected low-probability opportunities that most people overlooked.

His strategic logic is:
- Focus on events that are "impossible" to happen (those with extremely high odds in the market)
- Let the machine, not emotions, make decisions
- Quantify the risk-reward ratio of each bet

This kind of "contrarian mining" is especially effective in highly volatile markets. Although the win rate per bet isn't high, as long as he picks those opportunities where prices are severely distorted, he can outperform in the long run.

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zkProofGremlin

· 8h ago

A 40% win rate can still earn over 110,000? That's the real understanding edge... It's not about guessing correctly more often, but about winning big every time you win.

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CoffeeNFTs

· 12h ago

A 40% win rate can still make this much money? It shows that odds are the key, not the win rate. AI really has some skills when it comes to identifying mispricings.

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LiquidationAlert

· 12h ago

Can a 40% win rate still earn over 110,000? That's unbelievable. It seems the key isn't really the win rate. --- AI scanning errors in pricing. I've heard this logic many times, but few can actually implement it. Most are wiped out by emotions. --- Stories like turning $90 into $4000, just listen and don't take it seriously. --- The premise that machine decisions never make mistakes is flawed in itself. What if the code is wrong? --- Reverse mining sounds advanced, but it's really just making money where others overlook. But can these opportunities be replicated? --- The key is to find points of price distortion. But after AI has exploited these points, can the next person find them? --- A low win rate isn't scary; what's scary is losing everything in one爆仓. Has this guy really managed risk properly? --- Opportunities on Polymarket with low probability and high payout, I feel the risk is actually quite high. --- Long-term outperformance... the premise is surviving long enough. A major market event could wipe everything out.

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TokenomicsDetective

· 12h ago

90 bucks to turn into 4000? Now that's real alpha. A low win rate isn't a big deal; odds are everything.

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GmGmNoGn

· 12h ago

Can you still make such a profit with a 40% win rate? The key isn't how many times you win, but the odds setup for each bet... The robot's error in pricing scanning is indeed ruthless.

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FUDwatcher

· 13h ago

Can a 40% win rate still make over 110,000? This guy is really an artist of contrarian trading. I love seeing cases where data smashes people's faces. Honestly, the AI scanning for mispriced assets is the correct way to open up Web3 prediction markets. Human intuition here is just garbage. That case where $90 turned into $4000 is essentially probability arbitrage. The market always overestimates hot events and underestimates black swans. Those who understand this have already won in the long run. Machines don't panic or fall prey to FOMO. This advantage is truly incredible. No wonder they can outperform in the long term.

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