XRP, whale buying and institutional investor flows hold the important support at $1.92, while small investors remain on the sidelines.

The current XRP market is fluctuating around $1.92, supported by calculated buybacks from large investors and steady capital inflows into US-listed XRP ETFs. However, the lack of enthusiasm in the derivatives market is creating an ominous silence. Market tracking data shows that the XRP index ETF has been attracting approximately $1 billion in allocations for 21 consecutive days, indicating strong institutional interest. Meanwhile, the derivatives open interest remains at $3.71 billion, suggesting that retail investors are cautiously holding back during this rebound phase.

Market Duality—Revealing the Gap Between Institutions and Retail Investors

Support line battles, whales move

As XRP tests the support zone around $1.92, on-chain analysis captured noteworthy activity. A whale opened a $1.9232 long position worth $1.03 million. Such positioning is not mere speculation but a tactical move influencing market sentiment.

Large buy orders during periods of selling pressure provide temporary liquidity and support the market. However, historical patterns show that whale buying often correlates with a 10-15% increase in volatility, implying continued price instability afterward.

Simultaneous large positions in SOL and SUI suggest that major traders are selectively beginning to risk allocate into assets. Expectations for the next catalyst are rising among institutional investors.

Divergence Between Institutional Flows and Retail Investors

Looking solely at the 21-day inflow into XRP ETFs, one might think institutional confidence is high. Yet, price reactions remain muted. Why?

The answer is clear: participation in the derivatives market remains subdued. The $3.71 billion in futures open interest indicates that since the large liquidation event in October, retail investors have been hesitant to build speculative positions.

From another perspective, ETF inflows are based on long-term holdings and are not driven by short-term price speculation. This is why immediate market reactions are unlikely. Similar lag effects are observed in Bloomberg Intelligence’s analysis of Bitcoin ETFs.

Technicals Show Sellers Maintaining Control

XRP remains below key moving averages of 50 and 200 days. Repeated resistance around $2.50 forms a descending channel, strengthening seller dominance.

If $1.92 cannot be maintained, a drop toward $1.00 becomes realistic, according to multiple analysts. Currently, this support is barely holding due to whale buying, but without broader retail demand, any rebound may not last long.

Latest data shows XRP is currently priced at $2.07, down 3.67% in 24 hours, indicating the market is still exploring a bearish scenario.

Key Points to Watch

$1.92 Hold — The Watershed Level
Maintaining this level is crucial to avoiding a sharp decline to $1.00. It marks an important juncture for predicting the 2025 trend.

Whale Buying Is Temporary; Real Upside Requires Retail Participation
The $1.03 million long position absorbs short-term selling, stabilizing the market temporarily. To push above $2.00, a revival in derivatives activity and retail investor engagement are essential.

Focus on the Disparity Between Institutional Allocations and Derivatives Market Sentiment
$1 billion ETF inflows signal strong institutional intent, but sluggish futures open interest reflects a cooling of speculative sentiment overall. Until this gap narrows, large price movements are unlikely.

Future Outlook

While XRP is supported by steady institutional allocations and calculated whale buying, it awaits genuine participation from retail investors. Volatility is likely to increase, and if technical supports are broken, further adjustments cannot be ruled out.

As 2025 progresses, tracking on-chain activity, institutional flows, and derivatives market movements as a trio will be key to understanding XRP’s trajectory. For portfolio management, combining diversification strategies with close monitoring of these dynamics is a prudent approach.