Crypto Analyst Willy Woo Sees Near-Term Upside for Bitcoin Through Q1, Yet Questions 2026 Sustainability

Renowned crypto analyst Willy Woo recently shared a nuanced market outlook, flagging potential strength in Bitcoin’s price action through late January and into February, while expressing significant concerns about the cryptocurrency’s trajectory deeper into 2026.

The Bull Case: Capital Flows Are Turning

According to Willy Woo’s internal investor capital flow analysis, Bitcoin bottomed around December 24, marking a potential inflection point. The analyst noted that such technical formations typically require 2-3 weeks to translate into visible price movements—a window that is currently unfolding despite temporary headwinds from overbought technical readings.

A more encouraging development is the resurgence of futures market liquidity after prolonged dormancy. Willy Woo drew parallels to mid-2021, when a similar recovery in fiat-denominated liquidity preceded the secondary peak of the previous bull cycle. With Bitcoin trading near $96.87K against a historical all-time high of $126.08K, the analyst is zeroing in on critical price barriers at the $98,000-$100,000 range.

The Critical Test Ahead

Should Bitcoin maintain support above the $98,000-$100,000 threshold, the next significant focal point would be reclaiming the previous all-time high. However, Willy Woo emphasized that this outcome is far from guaranteed and hinges on sustained capital inflows.

The 2026 Caution: Why Momentum May Falter

Despite near-term optimism, Willy Woo turned decidedly cautious when evaluating the broader macro picture. Since January 2025, he observed that liquidity relative to price momentum has been deteriorating—a troubling signal suggesting that Bitcoin is operating in a final-stage rally zone where price advances lack sufficient underlying capital support.

The analyst’s bearish 2026 thesis hinges on one critical variable: whether spot-market (long-term) liquidity flows substantially over the coming months to reverse the weakening trend. If capital influx fails to materialize, the current rally risks becoming momentum-driven rather than conviction-driven.

When Will a Bear Market Confirm?

Importantly, Willy Woo stressed that a formal bear market has not yet materialized. The confirmation signal to watch would be sustained outflows of Bitcoin capital—a lagging but definitive indicator of cycle tops. Until that threshold is crossed, the possibility of a narrative shift remains on the table if liquidity conditions improve sufficiently.

The analyst’s framework ultimately suggests a binary outcome: near-term resilience if capital flows stabilize, or structural weakness if liquidity dries up heading into 2026.