Gold Price Fluctuates in Resistance Zone as Market Awaits US Employment Data

Gold prices remain under pressure this Friday, with the USD strengthening its gains from the past few weeks and reaching levels not seen since mid-December. The movement of the US dollar, which remains near recent highs, limits the performance of XAU/USD and deters more aggressive investment buyers of the metal. However, dovish signals emanating from the Federal Reserve create a floor for further losses, preventing more significant declines in the commodity.

The Rising Dollar and Its Implications for Gold Prices

The continuous strengthening of the US dollar is fueled by positive economic expectations, although it is beginning to encounter resistance as bets on rate cuts gain traction. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated in an interview with CNBC that lower interest rates are the missing ingredient for more robust economic growth, suggesting that the Fed should not delay moves in this direction.

Market participants are already pricing in the possibility that the US central bank will start to cut borrowing costs in March, with additional cuts expected for the rest of the year. This scenario could provide significant support to gold, reducing the relative attractiveness of the non-yielding asset compared to the dollar.

Catalyst of the Day: US Employment Report

The real inflection point for the markets occurs today with the release of the monthly non-farm payroll data. Projections point to the creation of 60,000 jobs in December, below the 64,000 recorded in November, while the unemployment rate is expected to decline from 4.6% to 4.5%.

These numbers will be crucial in guiding the Fed’s monetary policy path in the coming months and, consequently, determining the trajectory of both gold prices and the US dollar’s short-term behavior. Until these data are known, traders remain cautious about new directional positions.

Geopolitical Factors Support the Investment Metal

Growing uncertainties in the international scenario provide parallel support to gold as a safe haven asset. President Donald Trump signaled expectations that the US will manage resources in Venezuela and extract oil from its abundant reserves for an extended period, adding diplomatic tension to the region.

Separately, China intensified its trade confrontation with Japan through restrictions on rare earth exports and their magnetic derivatives, in response to statements by the Japanese Prime Minister regarding Taiwan. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned that the end of the conflict in Ukraine remains distant, characterizing any plan to send European troops to the region as dangerous.

These dynamics maintain appetite for safe assets, thus supporting demand for the precious metal in this uncertain context.

Technical Analysis: Mixed Signals in Gold Prices

XAU/USD remains above the 200-period exponential moving average, set at approximately US$ 4,322.58, maintaining an overall bullish trend. The upward gradient of this moving average supports retracements, while indicators provide contradictory signals.

The MACD line remains below its signal line and below the zero mark, but on an upward trajectory. The negative histogram shows contraction, suggesting a decrease in downward pressure. The RSI at 56 is above the neutral zone of 50, aligned with improved momentum without indicating overbought conditions.

If momentum continues to consolidate gains, buyers may extend the recovery, with retracements being absorbed by the prevailing trend. Staying above US$ 4,322.58 would preserve the bullish bias, while a decisive break below this level would open the way for a deeper retracement. Gold watchers should wait for a clear acceptance above US$ 4,500 before establishing new long positions with conviction.

US Dollar Dynamics This Week

The US dollar showed its best performance against the Swiss franc, gaining 0.92%. Against the euro, it advanced 0.60%, while the Japanese yen appreciated 0.90% against the USD. The Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar showed minimal variations against the US currency, with CAD down 0.30% and AUD up 0.26%.

This setup reflects a robust dollar in an environment where US economic data continues to support the currency, although expectations of rate cuts are beginning to limit further gains. The employment report this Friday will be decisive in confirming or revising these currency dynamics in the following days.