ETH Technical Outlook: Range Expansion Attempt Within a Broader Corrective Structure

ETH remains in a broader corrective phase following the strong rejection from the $4,450–$4,950 macro resistance zone, aligned with the 0.786–1.0 Fibonacci retracement. That rejection confirmed a macro distribution high, leading to a sharp bearish impulse and subsequent consolidation.

Recent price action shows ETH stabilizing above a key demand base near $3,050–$3,150, with price attempting a controlled recovery toward overhead resistance. While momentum has improved, the higher-timeframe trend has not yet fully reversed.

EMA Structure (Bearish Bias, Short-Term Stabilization)

20 EMA: $3,131
50 EMA: $3,141
100 EMA: $3,289
200 EMA: $3,339

ETH is currently trading around the 20 & 50 EMA, indicating short-term balance and early recovery attempts. However, price remains below the 100 & 200 EMA, keeping the medium- to long-term structure bearish.

The $3,280–$3,350 zone represents a major dynamic resistance cluster, where trend continuation will be decided.

Fibonacci & Price Structure

1 Fib: $4,956
0.786 Fib: $4,456
0.618 Fib: $4,065
0.5 Fib: $3,790
0.382 Fib: $3,514
0.236 Fib: $3,174
Fib 0: $2,623

ETH is currently consolidating around the 0.236 Fib ($3,174), acting as a key pivot zone. Sustained acceptance above this level could allow price to test $3,514–$3,790, where Fibonacci resistance and EMA confluence align.

Failure to hold above $3,130–$3,050 would weaken the recovery structure and increase the probability of a retest of the $2,880–$2,620 macro demand zone.

Structural Context

Price action shows ETH forming a higher low structure from the December bottom, suggesting early accumulation behavior. However, ETH remains below the broader resistance range, keeping the current move classified as a corrective recovery rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

A decisive daily close above $3,350–$3,500 would be required to shift market structure back toward bullish continuation.

RSI Momentum

RSI (14): 66

RSI has moved firmly above neutral, reflecting strong improving momentum and rising buyer participation. However, RSI is approaching the upper neutral range, suggesting potential consolidation near resistance before continuation.

📊 Key Levels

Resistance

$3,174 (0.236 Fib)

$3,350 (200 EMA)

$3,514 (0.382 Fib)

$3,790 (0.5 Fib)

Support

$3,130–$3,050 (short-term)

$2,880 (range support)

$2,620 (Fib 0 / macro demand)

📌 Summary

ETH is attempting a structured recovery after defending the $3,050 demand zone, with momentum continuing to improve. However, the broader structure remains corrective unless price can reclaim $3,350–$3,514 with strength. Until that occurs, ETH is likely to remain range-bound, with upside moves facing heavy overhead resistance.

$ETH
#DailyMarketOverview