In the morning when checking market data, a bunch of people asked me the same question: "Big shot, another 372 million has flowed into the spot ETF. Is it time to get in now?"

Let's stay calm. When I looked at this data, I noticed two things behind it that are worth pondering carefully. Only by understanding these can we avoid being fooled by surface numbers.

**Institutions are reducing their holdings, while the market is increasing**

When the total net inflow of 6.97 billion on that day last week in US Eastern Time was released, many people were excited. But a closer calculation reveals that IBIT alone absorbed 3.72 billion, accounting for 53%. The remaining 47%? It was split among a dozen other ETFs.

What does this mean? It’s quite clear — big funds are becoming more selective. In the past, they cast wide nets; now, they are targeting precisely. Institutions are focusing on the most competitive products, while smaller-scale, high-fee products are gradually being marginalized. Comparing with historical data from half a year ago, the difference is already quite obvious.

This has pros and cons for us. The advantage is that choosing has become simpler — no need to worry about a bunch of mediocre products; the downside is that the capital movements in leading products will increasingly influence the entire market, especially with a more direct impact on Bitcoin prices. In other words, future price fluctuations may become more closely linked to the capital flows of these top ETFs.

**Net inflow ≠ price booster**

This is the easiest point for beginners to misunderstand. Many see capital entering the market and assume the price will rise, but the logic is often reversed. More often, capital inflow is a confirmation of the trend, not the catalyst itself.

Think back to the ETF launch in early 2024. On the first day, 620 million flowed in, and Bitcoin did react, but that was a special case at a specific moment. Most of the time, capital inflow is just verifying the market’s already-formed direction, not the single hand that decides it.

So, seeing this 372 million inflow and rushing to increase positions isn’t really a logical move. A more rational approach is to consider other signals: market sentiment, technical analysis, macro environment — aggregate these factors before making a decision. Relying solely on one number for decision-making is actually quite risky.