Tonight, the US will release the ADP employment data, with a forecast of 47,000 jobs. Historically, the actual number is likely to fall within the range of 30,000 to 50,000, leaning towards a neutral to optimistic outlook. The previous figure of -32,000 was quite an extreme case, and the probability of it repeating this time is low.

Why do we make this judgment? Three reasons support this conclusion:

First, look at the signs of recovery in the employment market itself. From June to November, data has been hovering in the negative growth zone. By December, employment is expected to rebound to around 50,000, indicating that the market has expectations for the US employment recovery. The -32,000 figure was actually a short-term anomaly; the underlying logic of the employment market has not truly collapsed, so a rebound is justified.

Second, the forecast of 47,000 has a strong constraining effect. This estimate is based on fundamental factors such as labor supply and demand, and corporate hiring intentions. During periods of relative stability in the employment market, actual ADP numbers usually do not deviate far from expectations. Historical data confirms this.

Third, the rhythm of data movement. The ADP trend for 2025 shows a pattern of "high-level decline - bottoming out - stabilization." Clear bottoming signals appeared in November. Coupled with the backdrop of a moderate economic recovery in the US in Q4, large-scale layoffs are unlikely. A positive and gradually rising number is the logical expectation.

The following three scenarios and their market impacts:

**Scenario 1**: If the announced figure exceeds 47,000, it will reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates or maintain high rates for a long time, directly bearish for gold and emerging market assets. The US dollar will be supported, and sectors sensitive to foreign capital in A-shares may face pressure.

**Scenario 2**: If the number falls between 30,000 and 47,000, this aligns with market expectations. Various assets are likely to continue fluctuating and consolidating, and the trend direction will need to be confirmed after the non-farm payroll data is released.

**Scenario 3**: If the figure is below 30,000, especially if negative growth reappears, the market will start to worry about the risk of an economic recession. Expectations for interest rate cuts will rise, gold will find support, the US dollar will face pressure, and growth sectors in A-shares may experience a wave of sentiment recovery.