Stock Market in Mexico 2025: The Giants Transforming the Financial Landscape

Context: An Unexpected Opportunity in Times of Uncertainty

The year 2025 has brought surprises for global investors. While major U.S. indices remain flat or retreating, the stock market in Mexico has shown exceptional performance, accumulating gains close to 21.7% over the past 12 months. This dynamism occurs amid a complex international environment, marked by Donald Trump’s re-election and the imposition of 25% tariffs on Mexican products—scenarios that in theory would have predicted a crisis.

However, three factors have sustained the strength of the Mexican stock market: the nearshoring phenomenon, which attracts international investment into Mexican manufacturing; the resilience of domestic consumption; and the solid performance of leading companies operating in diversified sectors.

The Market Architecture: Structure and Composition

How does the Mexican stock ecosystem work?

The stock market in Mexico operates through the Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV), the second largest in Latin America and the fifth in the American continent. Although Mexico has two stock exchanges—BMV and BIVA—its capital market remains small relative to the size of its economy, with just 145 listed companies, of which 140 are Mexican.

Despite this numerical limitation, the Mexican stock market concentrates its liquidity and relevance in a small core of companies. The S&P/BMV IPC index, the country’s main stock performance indicator, groups 35 of the largest-cap companies that represent approximately 80% of the total market value. These 35 components exhibit diverse characteristics: the consumer staples sector leads with 30.9% weighting, followed by materials (26.2%) and industrials (12.3%).

Key Market Numbers

The S&P/BMV IPC has established itself as the benchmark for overall market performance in Mexico. Launched in October 1978, this market-cap-weighted index is reviewed twice a year (March and September) and calculated in real time. Performance data reveal:

• 1-year annualized return: 29%
• 5-year annualized return: 15%
• 10-year annualized return: 6.44%
• Average market capitalization: 221.939 billion MXN
• Market cap range: Between 17.882 and 1,279.282 billion MXN

The Pillars of the Mexican Stock Market: Analysis of Leading Companies

The concentrated dominance: How 5 corporations move the market

The Mexican stock market experiences high value concentration. The five largest corporations—Grupo México, Walmart de México, América Móvil, FEMSA, and Banorte—generate a combined 44.2% of total market capitalization and account for 55.8% of the S&P/BMV IPC index. This concentration is characteristic of emerging markets, where a few multinational companies or national conglomerates dominate the landscape.

To contextualize this concentration: the five largest corporations in the U.S. market surpass the total market value of Mexico’s stock market by more than 15 times. This underscores the scale difference between the two markets but also highlights the opportunity it presents for diversifying global portfolios.

Grupo México: The Mining Colossus

With a capitalization of 1.27 trillion MXN, Grupo México leads the stock market in Mexico. Founded in 1978, this conglomerate operates three strategic divisions: Minera México, Transportation, and Infrastructure.

In the third quarter of 2025, Grupo México reported revenues of 4.59 billion dollars, an 11% year-over-year growth, with net profit soaring over 50%, reaching 1.29 billion dollars. Technical analysis shows an annual price range between 91.08 and 167.85 dollars, with a PER ratio of 17.71 and a dividend yield of 2.71%.

However, analysts at Investing.com project an approximate decline of 6.9%, setting a target price at 149.42 MXN. Barron’s maintains a “Under/Sell” rating with a target of 8.33 USD for Class B shares.

Walmart de México: Retail Dominance

Walmart de México SAB de CV ranks second among the companies driving the Mexican stock market, with a capitalization of 1.10 trillion MXN. Operating since 1958 with a presence in Mexico and Central America, this retail chain controls hypermarkets, supermarkets, and discount clubs.

In the second quarter of 2025, its sales reached 246.253.8 million pesos compared to 227.415.1 million in the previous year. However, net profit declined to 11.226.9 million versus 12.510.1 million in Q2-24, indicating pressure on operating margins.

Barron’s maintains a “Overweight” recommendation for this stock. The price range is between 61.43 and 63.97 dollars, with a PER ratio of 21.86 and a dividend yield of 3.83%.

América Móvil: Global Telecommunications

América Móvil, S.A.B. de C.V., represents Mexico’s stock market access to a worldwide telecommunications conglomerate. Controlled by Grupo Carso of billionaire Carlos Slim, this company operates in 23 countries across America and Europe, serving over 323 million users, making it the leading telecom company on the American continent and seventh globally.

In the third quarter of 2025, América Móvil posted revenues of 232.920 billion Mexican pesos, a 4.2% year-over-year increase, with net profit of 22.700 billion pesos. Its market capitalization reaches 70.75 billion USD, with an annual price interval between 15,675 and 40,000 pesos.

The consensus of analysts on Investing.com maintains a “Buy” recommendation, with an average target price of 21,323 MXN for the next 12 months.

FEMSA: Multinational Diversification

Fomento Económico Mexicano S.A.B. de C.V. (FEMSA) exemplifies the diversification characteristic of the modern Mexican stock market. Founded in 1890 in Monterrey, FEMSA operates as the world’s largest Coca-Cola bottler, in addition to participating in retail, restaurants, and pharmacies.

With a presence in 17 countries and a capitalization of 583.28 billion MXN, FEMSA reported consolidated revenues of 214.638 billion pesos in the third quarter of 2025, a 9.1% year-over-year growth. However, net profit fell 36.8% to 5.838 billion pesos due to exchange losses and higher financial expenses.

The annual price interval ranges between 156.00 and 212.11 dollars, with a PER ratio of 38.85 and a dividend yield of 7.4%. Analysis portals project a “Buy” rating.

Banorte: Financial Leadership

Grupo Financiero Banorte, S.A.B. de C.V., founded in 1992 and based in San Pedro Garza García, represents the strength of the financial sector in Mexico’s stock market. As the second of Mexico’s four largest banks, Banorte serves 22 million clients through more than 1,000 branches and 7,000 ATMs.

In the third quarter of 2025, Banorte reported a net result of 13.008 billion pesos, a 9% decline year-over-year. Its market capitalization of 534.70 billion MXN, PER ratio of 9.02, and dividend yield of 7.30% position it as a defensive value.

Barron’s maintains a “Overweight” recommendation for this stock, with a price range between 131.60 and 187.29 dollars.

The Macroeconomic Scenario: Factors Supporting the Market

Mexican inflation continues to decline and is close to 3.5% annually, allowing the Bank of Mexico to begin gradual rate cuts, though maintaining caution due to underlying inflation. The exchange rate has shown remarkable resilience, with the peso moving within a limited range and avoiding sharp depreciations even under trade tensions.

This monetary stability has reduced operational cost pressures for companies in Mexico’s stock market, facilitating more predictable margins. The nearshoring trend continues to attract international investment into Mexican manufacturing, a phenomenon that particularly benefits companies like Grupo México and its transportation division.

Perspective: Opportunities to Rethink Global Strategy

For investors who have concentrated assets in U.S. markets for years, 2025 presents a real diversification opportunity. The Mexican stock market has surprised by clearly outperforming major U.S. indices, accumulating gains while these remain flat or negative.

A balanced strategy can combine selective exposure to leading Mexican companies, presence in U.S. assets, and local bonds from both economies. This mix allows capturing performance differences, reducing trade and currency risks, and offering a more robust horizon amid significant geopolitical changes.