2026-01-06 16:30:01

The large $400K bet on Polymarket has sparked heated discussions. On-chain analysts traced the flow of SOL funds and wallet tags, claiming to have found a "99% match" clue. But the Bubblemaps team came out to pour cold water on it—they pointed out that this methodology has many flaws: it only looked at part of the assets and ignored common operations like exchange deposit delays. What does this tell us? On-chain detective work may seem scientific, but in reality, it can be easily misled by surface data. Wallet tags and fund flow clues do exist, but to truly identify the real participants behind large transactions, relying solely on these is not enough. Analysts need to handle uncertainties more cautiously, and investors should not fully rely on on-chain analysis.

SOL1,94%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

16 Likes

Reward
16
7
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

TrustlessMaximalist

· 01-09 16:30

99% match? Bro, that's like saying you're 99% sure someone is the mastermind behind the scenes, but it turns out they just coincidentally used the same exchange. On-chain analysis has been like this for a long time; it looks very scientific but is actually just finding the answers you want in the data.

View OriginalReply0

SchroedingerAirdrop

· 01-08 20:10

99% match? Haha, it's like saying the weather today is 99% sunny but then it suddenly rains. On-chain analysis sounds scientific but is actually just survivor bias. ``` ``` Once again, fooled by data. Ignoring basic operations like exchange delays. No wonder they can never catch the people. ``` ``` So, don't treat on-chain detectives like Sherlock Holmes. Most of the time, it's just a story that looks pleasing. ``` ``` Interestingly, Bubblemaps hit right at the heart this time, touching the pain point of the entire analyst community. ``` ``` 400K people are worth "chasing the culprit" this much? According to this logic, multi-million dollar transactions would require a collective effort. ``` ``` On-chain data is not a lie; it's just that it shouldn't be over-interpreted as "certain truth." ``` ``` I just want to know how those 99% match analyses are explaining themselves now, haha.

View OriginalReply0

MultiSigFailMaster

· 01-06 17:00

99% match haha, is the analyst playing a probability game? Bubblemaps deflates with just one poke, it's really hilarious.

View OriginalReply0

MidnightMEVeater

· 01-06 16:58

Good morning, the on-chain detective dream at 3 a.m. has been shattered again. A 99% match is just as much a joke as my trading win rate.

View OriginalReply0

APY_Chaser

· 01-06 16:49

99% match? Uh, that's just ridiculous. On-chain detectives are still too confident; they can even miss basic operations like exchange delays.

View OriginalReply0

MidnightSnapHunter

· 01-06 16:41

99% match? Wake up, this is just the old trick of on-chain analysis. Data can lie, especially when you're only looking at half of the story. --- Ignoring basic operations like exchange delays, these "detectives" are really capable. --- So, not all links can be traced back; it depends on who does their homework more thoroughly. --- Bubblemaps' recent revelation actually feels pretty satisfying; finally someone has pierced through this layer of paper. --- $400K is worth researching, but don't be fooled by the 99% figure; probability isn't used that way. --- The more precise on-chain analysis becomes, the more dangerous it is; investors really need to be more cautious. --- Basically, it's just over-interpretation; what looks rigorous is actually just survivor bias.

View OriginalReply0

DisillusiionOracle

· 01-06 16:37

99% match? Haha, it's like probability theory—what's left in the 1% is often the most critical part. On-chain analysis can easily become "looks scientific but is actually mysticism," in other words, blind men touching the elephant. Don't be naive. Ignoring basic common sense like exchange delays—are these analysts serious? Can wallet tracking reveal a person's true identity? Come on, I've stopped believing in that long ago. It seems on-chain detectives also need to get their hands dirty to become proficient; it's not that easy. That's why I never go all-in on any single analysis method; I always consider multiple dimensions. At the end of the day, it's still about information asymmetry—no one should pretend to have the full picture.

View OriginalReply0