December 8 Multi-Asset Technical Briefing: Bitcoin rebounds strongly, precious metals continue to fluctuate

Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations Boost Bond Yields, Global Government Bonds Face Reassessment

Traders’ expectations for the Federal Reserve to announce a rate cut after next week’s meeting have reached a high of 87%. The market generally predicts that the December meeting will initiate a rate-cutting cycle, with two more adjustments possible next year, and the final policy rate is expected to fall back to the 3.00%-3.25% range. However, the current market presents a puzzling contradiction—despite rising expectations for rate cuts, global bond yields are collectively increasing.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has broken through 4.15%, the 10-year Japanese government bond yield has reached 1.97%, and Germany’s 10-year bund yield has climbed to 2.81%. This rise in government bond yields across the U.S., Japan, and Europe reflects investor concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence, the Bank of Japan’s rate hike expectations, and the U.S. fiscal dilemma. Market risks are evidently not to be underestimated.

Bitcoin: Stabilizing Above 90,000, Opportunities for 100,000 Emerge

Bitcoin rose 1.8% intraday last Friday, reaching a high of $92,296, with the latest quote at $93.70K. Notably, Bitcoin is currently holding above the psychological 90,000 USD level, in a clear rebound cycle. The technical AO indicator shows bullish momentum is accumulating, making upward movement the optimal choice.

If Bitcoin can continue to stay above 90,000 USD, it may further challenge the 95,000 USD and even the 100,000 USD levels. Conversely, to reverse the upward trend, it must first break below the support at 86,000 USD to confirm.

Technical support levels: 90,000, 86,000, 75,000; Resistance levels: 95,000, 100,000, 106,000

Gold: 4200 USD Level Faces Resistance, Downside Risks Need Attention

Gold rose 0.27% intraday last Friday, reaching a high of $4,219, but has been blocked near the 4200 USD level for four consecutive days. Looking at a larger cycle, gold is in a sustained upward trend since February 2024, currently building the fourth consolidation zone, indicating that upward momentum persists but short-term risks are emerging.

Technical analysis shows gold is consolidating in the $3,890-$4,225 range. If a correction occurs, focus should be on whether the Gann 2/1 line at $4,050 can hold, which will determine the depth of the short-term decline.

Technical support levels: 4130, 4050, 3930; Resistance levels: 4220, 4300, 4381

Silver: Continuous New Highs, Sideways Testing Patience of Bulls and Bears

Silver rose 0.23% intraday last Friday, reaching a high of $58.72. The continuous new highs indicate the overall upward trend remains intact, but ongoing range-bound consolidation suggests fierce competition between bulls and bears, with short-term pullbacks not to be overlooked.

Key support is at $56.50. If silver can stabilize above this level, it may further rebound toward $60.0 and even $63.50. Conversely, if it falls below $56.50, further downside risks to $53.8 and even $51.0 should be guarded against.

Technical support levels: 56.5, 53.5, 50.0; Resistance levels: 60.0, 63.5, 68.0

USD/JPY: Long-term Uptrend Line Challenged, Downside Risks Rise

USD/JPY rose slightly by 0.1% intraday last Friday, reaching a high of 155.54, currently holding above 155.0. It is important to note that USD/JPY is facing a test of its long-term uptrend line, and the AO momentum indicator has begun to show downward signals, suggesting a continued weakening in the near future.

If USD/JPY breaks below the key support at 155.0, it is expected to accelerate downward, further testing 152.0 and even 150.0. To reverse the decline, it needs to recover and stabilize above 156.0 to confirm.

Technical support levels: 155.0, 152.0, 150.0; Resistance levels: 157.0, 158.0, 160.0