#PIPPIN Based on the chart data you provided for PIPPIN/USDT, the current main force is in the stage of “deep correction and distribution after a violent rally,” with the core intention of using high-level oscillations to complete chip exchange and prepare for the next move.

1. Core Data Interpretation and Main Force Stage Judgment

| Observation Dimension | Data/Pattern | Main Force Stage and Intent Analysis |
|-------------------------|--------------|-------------------------------------|
| Price and Trend | Price has fallen from about 0.78 high point to 0.325, a decline of over 58%, breaking below MA10/20 but still above the key MA60 (0.237). | After experiencing a main upward wave (distribution phase), it enters a deep correction (shakeout/secondary accumulation). MA60 is the lifeline that the main force must defend; breaking below indicates a complete trend reversal to bear. |
| Volume | Current volume is 5.848 million, compared to the historical daily volume of 901 million, showing a “cliff-like shrinkage.” | No-volume decline indicates: 1. Panic selling has been partially released; 2. Follower and main force buying are inactive; 3. Main force may be offsetting or observing. |
| MACD DIF(0.0247) crosses below DEA(0.04479), forming a death cross at high levels, with MACD histogram turning negative(-0.02008). | Upward momentum has been exhausted, and the short-term trend is dominated by the bears, confirming an adjustment cycle. |
| RSI | RSI(9)=40.42, has entered a weak zone but not yet in extreme oversold territory(<30). | Market sentiment is cooling, with further downside space, but rebound momentum is insufficient. |
| OBV (On-Balance Volume) | OBV remains high but has fallen from its peak, forming a potential bearish divergence with the price decline. | Indicates that the previous rally was driven by real funds, but recent price increases have seen funds quietly flowing out, a sign of main force distribution. |

2. Main Force Current Core Intent Deduction

Overall, the main force’s intent is not singular but involves complex distribution and re-layout:

1. Primary Intent: Distribution at high levels, profit realization
· From an extremely low position (reference MA200: 0.084) to 0.78, a remarkable increase, with the main force gaining extremely rich profits. The current high-level oscillation and decline aim primarily to distribute chips to chasing buyers and bottom-fishers.
2. Secondary Intent: Deep shakeout, testing support
· Through rapid and large decline (-8.64%), to cleanse weak hands, and test the market’s support at MA60 (0.237) and the panic level of retail investors.
3. Potential Intent: Preparing for the next round of market
· If the price can stabilize near MA60 and complete chip turnover, the main force may re-accumulate chips at relatively low levels, preparing for future rebounds or a new wave of market. This requires time and favorable market conditions.

3. Key Follow-up Trend Deduction and Observation Points

The subsequent trend will revolve around MA60 support and volume:

| Possible Path | Probability | Trigger Conditions and Key Signals | Subsequent Development |
|----------------|--------------|-------------------------------------|------------------------|
| Path A: Weak rebound followed by continued decline | 60% | Rebound to 0.36-0.38 (former support now resistance) with no volume, then resistance again, followed by further decline. | Testing MA60 (0.237) support; if volume breaks below, it may trigger deeper decline, down to 0.20 or lower. |
| Path B: Stabilize above MA60 and build a bottom | 30% | Price falls near 0.237-0.26, volume shrinks to extremely low levels, then a strong bullish candle stabilizes. | Forms a medium-term oscillation platform, requiring long consolidation (weeks) to repair technical indicators and accumulate energy. |
| Path C: Direct volume reversal | 10% | Sudden major positive news, with massive volume (approaching or exceeding several times the daily average), strong rally, recapturing MA20. | Reverses short-term downtrend, but heavy trapped positions in the 0.45-0.55 zone make a V-shaped reversal highly unlikely. |

4. Rational Operation Strategy Reference

· For holders:
· Reducing positions: Any rebound to the 0.35-0.38 zone is an opportunity to lighten positions and reduce risk.
· Final stop-loss: Set 0.237 (MA60) as the ultimate stop-loss; if the closing price effectively breaks below, decisively exit to avoid deep trapped positions.
· For non-holders/observers:
· Avoid bottom-fishing: The “flying knives” have not yet fallen; any rebound in a downtrend may only be a relay. Do not catch falling knives.
· Two higher-confidence entry opportunities:
1. Right-side opportunity: Wait for volume to break through 0.38 strongly and stabilize, then consider light positions after MACD forms a golden cross.
2. Left-side opportunity: If the price falls to 0.24-0.26, with continuous low-volume sideways movement (daily volume very low), accompanied by long lower shadows or volume-increasing reversal signals, then consider very small speculative positions.

Summary: PIPPIN has entered a clear downtrend. The main force’s actions have shifted from “rising” to “distribution” and “shakeout.” Until volume shows a fundamental increase and technical indicators (especially MACD) show clear bottom reversal signals, the market’s primary task is to find and confirm a new equilibrium point through further decline. Please remain patient and wait for the market to find its own clear direction.