2026-01-06 15:21:00

Two major signals are being released simultaneously: the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations are heating up, and at the same time, Bitcoin exchange net outflows over the past 24 hours have exceeded 700 BTC. The last time this combination appeared was in March 2020, and that market movement subsequently evolved into a spectacular bull run from $3,800 to $64,800.

The logic is actually quite straightforward. Rate cuts will increase the supply of US dollars, and massive liquidity needs to find an outlet. Meanwhile, continuous outflows of Bitcoin from exchanges reflect a strengthening willingness among holders to hoard, and market selling pressure is easing. On one side, "money is increasing," and on the other, "coins are decreasing." This supply-demand mismatch often triggers rapid price adjustments.

On-chain data signals are even clearer: large holders are quietly accumulating chips, and the Bitcoin balance on exchanges has fallen to multi-year lows. Historically, whenever such signals appear, the market often enters a new upward cycle.

For investors, the approach to seizing opportunities is also quite clear: avoid frequent short-term trading, use dollar-cost averaging to smooth out costs, and then securely transfer assets to cold wallets, letting time validate this logic.

BTC0,7%

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ColdWalletGuardian

· 01-07 13:11

In March 2020, I was also an eyewitness throughout the process. This time, the signal really looks promising. --- It's time to start dollar-cost averaging again. It feels like this cycle is really coming. --- The exchange outflow of 700 coins doesn't sound like much, but it really indicates that big players are accumulating. I believe it. --- Cutting interest rates + strong willingness to hold coins—this combination I bet will play out. --- Stop short-term trading; it's too exhausting. Buy in batches, lock it in a cold wallet, and do whatever you need to do. --- Will history repeat itself? Not necessarily, but this signal is definitely strong. --- I just want to know how many people still dare to do dollar-cost averaging now. --- Big players are accumulating coins, and exchanges are experiencing outflows, indicating that smart money is moving. We just follow along. --- From 3,800 to 64,800, if it happens again, I’ll just lie flat. --- Liquidity is looking for an exit, and crypto is the best exit, after all.

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SandwichTrader

· 01-07 01:32

In 2020, that wave from 3,800 to 64,800 was truly a masterstroke. Now that the signal is reappearing, I really can't ignore it.

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PortfolioAlert

· 01-06 21:02

In March 2020, Na Po really didn't miss out. Now that this signal appears again, are we going to see a repeat? Why do I feel like every time I say this, I end up getting cut... I believe in the large traders' net outflow from exchanges, but the question is, when can we truly get on board without getting trapped? 700 coins flowing out is not enough to watch; we need to see subsequent monthly data before taking action. The expectation of interest rate cuts has been talked about for a while. Is it a bit late to enter now? The cold wallet suggestion is good; at least it feels better psychologically... This logic always sounds correct, but somehow something is always missing in execution... The real big traders have already gotten on board; by the time we see this signal, they've already finished a round. Dollar-cost averaging is the way to go. Don't think about perfectly bottoming out; that's all post-hoc reasoning.

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0xOverleveraged

· 01-06 15:51

I didn't get in during the dip in March 2020, and now watching history repeat itself, it's a bit uncomfortable... Really? Can a net outflow of 700 coins determine the trend? Feels a bit too good to be true. Big whales are accumulating, while retail investors are still debating whether to buy. The gap... Cutting interest rates + fleeing = takeoff? Sounds great, but I can't gamble on it anymore. Cold wallets are something to learn about; it's definitely better than being on an exchange, constantly worried. No matter how well you phrase it, the fact remains: I don't have the money to invest regularly. This logic was correct last time, but is it necessarily right this time? History repeats but doesn't duplicate, right? On-chain data is so clear, why are so many still cutting losses... Instead of obsessing over signals, it's better to focus on how to save up the initial capital. Supply and demand mismatch sounds professional, but in reality, it's just "more money, fewer coins," which isn't anything new.

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AirdropHuntress

· 01-06 15:51

I didn't get on the train in March 2020, now that the signal has appeared, I need to be more cautious.

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SelfSovereignSteve

· 01-06 15:38

I missed the wave in 2020; can it really be reproduced this time?

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TokenTherapist

· 01-06 15:35

2020 was truly amazing. Now that the signal is repeating, I'm a bit too excited haha Wow, big players are secretly accumulating, and we're still arguing in the group Wait, is a net outflow of 700 coins really just the appetizer? Something's off. Why does this logic sound familiar... I feel like I heard this before when it was around 40,000 dollars Storing coins in cold wallets is the real deal; the fewer coins on exchanges, the more comfortable it is The supply and demand mismatch argument is back again, but I still choose to believe

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MainnetDelayedAgain

· 01-06 15:23

According to the database, the signal wave from March 2020 has been delayed for more than four years now. Whether it can finally be realized this time remains to be seen... The drama of big players accumulating chips happens every round, but we don't know how long we have to wait this time to see that "spectacle."

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