#以太坊大户持仓变化 The Federal Reserve's unexpected rate cuts in 2026, how much more can the gold bull market rise?

In 2025, gold surged by 67%, and this rally is just getting started. As we turn into 2026, institutions are intensively predicting: the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates 2-3 times throughout the year, with each cut ranging from 50-75 basis points, which is like injecting a strong dose of confidence into the gold bull market.

Simply put, rate cuts = gold engine. The lower the real interest rate, the smaller the opportunity cost of holding interest-free assets, and funds naturally flow into gold. Looking back at history, since 1990, every Fed rate-cut cycle has not disappointed gold investors. The most memorable was during the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis, when a wave of rate cuts directly pushed gold prices up by 41%. In 2025 alone, three rate cuts have already pushed London spot gold prices past the $4,500 per ounce mark. If rate cuts in 2026 truly exceed expectations, loosening dollar liquidity, massive funds will flow from dollar assets into safe-haven assets like gold with zero credit risk, making the recurrence of historical patterns highly probable.

But the factors driving gold prices are not limited to rate cuts alone. Take a look at what global central banks are doing—gold buying has never stopped. China has been increasing its holdings for 13 consecutive months, with 95% of surveyed central banks planning to continue increasing their reserves in 2026. Gold's share in global reserves has risen to 20%, solidifying its role as a core de-dollarization tool. Coupled with the U.S. economy facing a 35% recession probability, frequent geopolitical frictions, and national debt exceeding 120% of GDP, gold’s safe-haven halo shines even brighter.

What do institutions think? The World Gold Council predicts that gold prices could rise another 15%-30% in 2026, targeting $5,000 per ounce; UBS is even more aggressive, seeing the possibility of reaching $5,400. Meanwhile, gold ETFs still have massive inflow potential—just shifting 0.5% of U.S. overseas assets into gold would be enough to push gold prices to $6,000.

Of course, we must stay calm. High-level oscillations are inevitable, but the combined effects of rate cut expectations, central bank gold purchases, and global risk aversion have already laid a solid foundation for this bull market. For ordinary participants, don’t get frustrated by daily fluctuations. Going with the trend and making decisive moves during pullbacks is the right way to earn certain returns in this cross-cycle asset revaluation.

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