## 2025 Gold Market Outlook: Is There Still Room for Gold Prices to Rise?

As we enter 2025, the global investment markets are volatile, and gold has once again become a market focus. From its strong performance at the end of last year to recent adjustments, many investors are beginning to ask: **How should we interpret the current gold price trend?** **Is it still worth investing?**

According to the latest forecasts from major financial institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America, the long-term outlook for gold remains optimistic. JPMorgan Chase has raised its Q4 2026 target price to $5,055 per ounce, while BofA boldly predicts that gold could break $6,000 next year. Behind these forecasts lies market confidence in gold’s future performance.

### Decomposing the Core Support Factors of Gold Price Trends

To understand the current market, one must first grasp the underlying logic driving the continuous rise in gold prices.

**Policy Uncertainty and Safe-Haven Demand**

Since Trump took office, a series of tariff policies have emerged, directly triggering risk aversion in the markets. Historical experience shows that during periods of policy uncertainty, gold often experiences a short-term increase of 5-10%. When the market is filled with unknowns, the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset becomes significantly stronger.

**Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations and Real Interest Rates**

The Fed’s policy stance has a profound impact on gold prices. Expectations of rate cuts tend to weaken the dollar and reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold. According to CME interest rate tools, the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points again in December is 84.7%. Historical data shows a clear negative correlation between gold and real interest rates—when rates fall, gold’s relative value tends to rise.

**Continued Central Bank Gold Purchases**

Data from the World Gold Council indicates that in Q3 2025, global central banks net purchased 220 tons of gold, a 28% increase quarter-over-quarter. In the first nine months, total gold purchases reached approximately 634 tons. More importantly, 76% of surveyed central banks plan to increase their gold reserves over the next five years, while expecting a decline in dollar reserves. This collective action by central banks provides a structural support for long-term gold price trends.

**Deeper Economic Environment Factors**

Currently, global debt has reached $307 trillion, and high debt levels limit the scope for interest rate policies, leading to a generally accommodative monetary policy. In this environment, real interest rates are suppressed, and gold’s appeal as a hedge across economic cycles continues to strengthen. Geopolitical risks (such as the Russia-Ukraine war, Middle East tensions) and doubts about confidence in the dollar also indirectly boost gold’s safe-haven value.

### The True Face of Gold Price Trends: Opportunities and Risks Coexist

The performance of gold over the past two years has indeed been impressive—gains approaching the highest in nearly 30 years in 2024-2025, breaking through $4,300 per ounce in October and setting new record highs. The subsequent correction is viewed by the market as a “healthy adjustment” rather than a trend reversal.

However, caution is advised, as short-term volatility may be more intense than you expect. The average annual fluctuation of gold is 19.4%, comparable to the stock market’s 14.7%. Media coverage and social sentiment further amplify this volatility—repeated reports and emotional narratives tend to attract large amounts of short-term capital, causing phase overbought conditions.

### Different Investor Strategies

**If you are a short-term trader**

Volatility creates opportunities for short-term operations. The gold market is highly liquid, and the direction of price movement is relatively easy to judge when market sentiment is clear. But this requires some trading experience and risk management skills. Beginners should avoid blindly chasing highs; it’s recommended to start with small amounts to test the waters, preventing emotional breakdowns and consecutive losses. Tracking key US economic data releases via economic calendars can significantly assist your trading decisions.

**If you want to hold physical gold**

Long-term holding makes sense, but be prepared for significant fluctuations along the way. Gold’s cycle is very long; investors may need a time horizon of 10 years or more to achieve preservation and appreciation goals. Transaction costs are also hidden costs—spreads for physical gold typically range from 5% to 20%. Additionally, Taiwanese investors should consider the impact of USD/TWD exchange rate fluctuations, which could significantly offset final returns.

**If you want to allocate a diversified portfolio**

Including gold in your investment portfolio is meaningful, but only if the proportion is controlled reasonably. Gold’s volatility exceeds what many investors imagine; putting all your funds into a single asset is not advisable. Diversification is recommended, and while holding core positions, actively capturing price movements for short-term trading—especially around US market data releases—is effective, as volatility tends to be most pronounced before and after these events.

### Judging the Timing for Entry

It’s not too late to buy gold now, provided you clearly understand your goals and risk tolerance. The fundamental logic supporting long-term growth—central bank gold purchases, low interest rate environment, geopolitical risks, and a relatively weak dollar—remains intact. Short-term pullbacks may actually present good entry points.

However, putting all your eggs in one basket is never wise. Diversification, risk control, monitoring US economic data, and Fed meeting schedules are basic principles every retail investor should remember. The gold market has not ended, but rational decision-making is far more important than blindly following the trend.