How will the international gold trend chart look in 2025? From historical highs to future expectations

Since the start of 2025, the international gold price trend chart has attracted much attention. After breaking the record high of $4,400 per ounce in October last year, a technical correction occurred, but market participation remains hot. Many investors share the same question: Is there still room for the international gold trend chart to rise? Is it too late to enter now?

To answer these questions, it is first necessary to understand the fundamental logic behind gold price fluctuations, so as to make more rational decisions amid the volatility of the international gold trend chart.

Institutions Generally Optimistic, but Short-term Fluctuations Are Inevitable

Although recent adjustments have appeared in the international gold trend chart, professional institutions remain optimistic about the medium to long-term prospects:

J.P. Morgan Commodity Team considers this correction a “healthy adjustment” and has raised its Q4 2026 target price to $5,055 per ounce. Goldman Sachs reiterates a target price of $4,900 by the end of 2026. Bank of America strategists go further, believing that gold could surge to $6,000 next year.

These forecasts are not baseless but are based on deep market logic—the international gold trend chart is currently in the early stage of a long-term upward cycle.

Three Major Factors Driving the Continued Rise of the International Gold Trend Chart

Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations as the Core Driver

Gold prices have an inverse relationship with real interest rates: lower rates increase gold’s attractiveness. According to CME interest rate tools, the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in December is 84.7%. Whenever rate cut expectations strengthen, the international gold trend chart usually rises accordingly. Historically, during the US-China trade war in 2018, similar uncertainty environments caused gold to rise short-term by 5-10%.

Global Central Banks Continue to Increase Gold Reserves

According to the World Gold Council, in Q3 2025, global central banks net purchased 220 tons of gold, a 28% increase from the previous quarter. More importantly, 76% of surveyed central banks indicated they would “moderately or significantly increase” their gold holdings over the next five years, while also expecting a decline in dollar reserves. This long-term shift supports a structural upward trend in the international gold trend chart.

Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainty Intensifies

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, tense Middle East situations, and the global debt total reaching $307 trillion (IMF data) have led countries into a “high debt, low interest rate” dilemma. Monetary policy shifts toward easing have strengthened gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.

Characteristics of Volatility in the International Gold Trend Chart and Investment Recommendations

It is important to note that gold’s annual volatility reaches 19.4%, not lower than that of the stock market. The cycle of the international gold trend chart is very long—buying it as a store of value requires a time frame of over 10 years to achieve stable returns, but it may experience doubling or halving in the meantime.

For experienced short-term traders, the current volatility provides many opportunities. As long as they grasp the timing of fluctuations around US economic data releases, quick movements in the international gold trend chart can often bring short-term profits.

For novice investors, it is recommended to start with small amounts, avoiding blindly chasing highs. Physical gold trading costs range between 5% and 20%, so heavy positions are not advisable. The safest approach is to include gold as part of a diversified portfolio rather than investing all assets into it.

If you want to balance long-term preservation with short-term gains, you can hold a basic position and use key volatility points in the international gold trend chart for short-term trading—especially around US market data releases. However, this requires certain trading experience and risk management skills.

Summary

The upward logic of the international gold trend chart remains solid: central bank holdings, rate cut expectations, and safe-haven demand are unlikely to fade in the short term. However, gold is not a linear upward asset; fluctuations and corrections are normal market behaviors. The key is to develop reasonable entry and holding strategies based on your risk tolerance, rather than blindly following the trend.