Non-farm payroll data is about to be released! Can the Fed's December rate cut probability reverse the trend? The market is in a fierce battle between bulls and bears.

The latest signals from the US labor market are about to be revealed. On November 20th at 9:30 PM, the US Department of Labor will officially release the September non-farm payrolls data, which will serve as a key indicator for the Federal Reserve’s decision at the December 10th meeting.

September Non-Farm Payrolls Data Release Confirmed, Market on High Alert

The release of the non-farm payrolls data is scheduled for November 20th at 21:30. The market generally expects the number of new jobs added in September to reach 50,000, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3%, and average hourly earnings year-over-year growth maintaining at 3.7%.

It is noteworthy that, due to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announcing it will no longer publish the October employment report, the release date for October data has been postponed to December 16th. This means that the September non-farm payrolls data will be the last major official employment indicator before the Fed’s December decision, making its importance self-evident.

One Data Point Determines Rate Cut Probability, Fed’s Stance Ambiguous

According to the latest forecast from CME FedWatch Tool, market expectations for the Fed’s December decision are showing clear divergence: a 67.2% chance of holding rates steady, and only a 32.8% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut.

The minutes from the Fed’s October meeting revealed serious disagreements among officials regarding whether to cut rates in December. More members believe that, against the backdrop of still-high inflation and a gradually weakening labor market, a hasty rate cut could reignite inflation.

However, some major international banks hold contrary views. Standard Chartered Bank firmly states that the Fed will ultimately choose to cut rates in December, reasoning that the continuous employment data from September to November is expected to show significant weakness, which should be enough to sway the dovish faction within the Fed. HSBC also predicts a rate cut in December but notes that the room for further easing in 2026 will be significantly limited.

Non-Farm Data Trends Will Decide Multiple Market Directions

The performance of the September non-farm payrolls data will directly influence the trajectories of the US dollar, gold, and US stocks. If the data exceeds expectations, it will reinforce the dollar’s appreciation logic, suppress gold prices, and put pressure on US equities. Conversely, if the data falls short, it will weaken the dollar’s attractiveness, promote gold gains, and create space for a rebound in US stocks.

In terms of US stock investment, JPMorgan recently issued an optimistic analysis report. The institution believes that the recent technical correction in US stocks has basically been completed, and now is the best window for positioning. JPMorgan’s Global Market Intelligence head Andrew Tyler emphasized: “Given that the fundamental environment has not undergone substantial changes, and our investment strategy does not overly rely on Fed policies, moderate accumulation at this point is a wise move.” He further pointed out that the upcoming earnings report from Nvidia and the release of the September non-farm payrolls data could create opportunities for new highs in US stocks.

Future US Dollar Outlook: HSBC’s 2026 Forecast

Regarding the medium-term outlook for the dollar, HSBC has proposed an interesting timing hypothesis. The bank believes that, because the likelihood of the Fed further cutting rates in 2026 has significantly decreased, the US dollar index is very likely to hit a bottom in the first quarter of 2026 or earlier, and then initiate a new rebound cycle.

This judgment suggests that the dollar, as a safe-haven asset, still retains long-term appeal, but its appreciation potential may face time constraints in the first half of next year.