DOGE Reversal Truth: Whale Wars and Retail Traps Behind the $0.15 Level

After a prolonged two-month cycle of "false rebounds – sharp declines," Dogecoin (DOGE) finally stabilized in early 2025. Since the recent low at the end of December, DOGE has rebounded approximately 33%, marking its strongest rally since November last year. But this time, technical indicators are not the key—what truly changed the game was a silent internal civil war within the whale camp.

Why Did the Reversal Succeed? The Answer Lies Not in Candlestick Charts but on the Chain

From November 4 to December 31, DOGE’s price kept making new lows, yet RSI continued to rise, forming a textbook bullish divergence. This should have been the most reliable reversal signal, but during the previous two occurrences of similar patterns, the market quickly fizzled out, with rebounds of only 13% and 17%, respectively.

Where’s the problem? Chips.

Mid-sized Whales: From "Rebound and Dump" to "Steadfast Lock-in"

In the two failed rebounds, the "mid-sized whales" holding between 1 million and 10 million DOGE played the role of "market killers" with precision:

• November 25: holdings dropped from 10.91 billion DOGE to 10.72 billion DOGE, market failed accordingly

• December 21–22: holdings decreased from 10.86 billion DOGE to 10.79 billion DOGE, rebound again aborted

But in this reversal, the most perceptive core force in the market showed a fundamental shift. Since December 31, their holdings increased from about 10.84 billion DOGE to 10.88 billion DOGE, a net addition of roughly 40 million DOGE, worth about $6 million. More importantly, they did not realize profits during the initial rebound but chose to hold and slightly add to their positions. This stable mid-term buying activity elevated the market from a "one-day wonder" to a "sustainable trend."

Warning Signal: The Deadly Combo of Super Whales and Bearish Divergence

However, a successful reversal does not mean the risk disappears. On the contrary, when you can see the main force’s movements clearly, it often signals the eve of a bigger storm.

Hidden Bearish Divergence: Momentum Is Fading

From mid-October to early January, DOGE’s price peaks gradually moved lower, but RSI highs kept rising, forming a "hidden bearish divergence." Unlike bullish divergence, this pattern usually appears during an uptrend, indicating that prices are still being pushed higher, but upward momentum is waning. Selling pressure above is gradually absorbing new demand. In other words, buyers are still exerting effort, but their efficiency is clearly declining.

Super Whales: $130 Million Selling Pressure Quietly Unleashed

Along with the technical signals, the largest on-chain force—the "super whales" holding over 1 billion DOGE—began actively reducing their exposure starting January 1. Their holdings decreased from about 72.68 billion DOGE to 71.8 billion DOGE, a net reduction of approximately 880 million DOGE, equivalent to about $130 million worth of supply entering the market at current prices.

This does not mean the market will immediately reverse, but when hidden bearish divergence and super whale selling appear simultaneously, the more common outcome is—momentum of the rebound weakens rather than accelerating the trend. The current phase’s risk, more accurately, is "whale-led risk": mid-sized whales are locking in positions, super whales are offloading, while retail investors still cheer "bullish return."

$0.151: The Core Price Zone Deciding Fate

Currently, technical indicators have taken a backseat; the price itself has become the most critical signal. DOGE has repeatedly faced resistance around the $0.151 level, which has become a key short-term dividing line between bulls and bears.

Scenario 1: Cannot Hold Steady Above $0.151

The probability of a pullback increases significantly, with the primary target at $0.137 (about 8% retracement). If this support fails, the structure will further expose $0.115. This move would fully confirm the hidden bearish divergence and aligns closely with the super whales’ continued reduction behavior.

Scenario 2: Breakthrough and Close Daily Above $0.151

The impact of bearish divergence will be weakened, selling pressure absorbed by the market, and the upside space will open up, with a target of up to $0.173.

The Harsh Truth of 2025: MEME Coins Are No Longer Retailer’s Game

DOGE’s story reflects the brutal reality of the 2025 crypto market: the pricing power of MEME coins has completely shifted from retail investors to whales and quantitative funds. After the institutionalization of Bitcoin and Ethereum, capital is now focusing on altcoins with lower liquidity and easier manipulation.

According to the latest data from Chainalysis, large transactions (over $100,000) in DOGE surged from 12% in 2023 to 38% in 2025, while small transactions (under $1,000) shrank from 45% to 19%. Whales are no longer content with "drawing the gate" for harvesting but are now using sophisticated on-chain behavior analysis to predict and counteract collective retail actions.

Ironically, as DOGE struggles at $0.15, the entire MEME coin sector is experiencing "structural differentiation." PEPE surged to new highs with a 68% weekly increase, BONK also attempted to replicate the 5x myth, but DOGE’s super whales are retreating. This indicates that capital is shifting from "legacy MEME" to "new narrative MEME," and DOGE, as a relic of the last cycle, may be losing its "cultural consensus premium."

Final Words: Don’t Become Liquidity for Whales Changing Sides

DOGE has indeed confirmed a true reversal this time; the continuous accumulation by mid-sized whales is key to sustaining the trend. But at the same time, upward momentum is slowing, super whales have already cashed out early, and the price is being suppressed around the $0.15 core zone.

The next direction depends not on Elon Musk’s tweets or retail FOMO but on whether it can truly hold above $0.151.

As an ordinary investor, what you should be wary of is not "Will DOGE fall," but "Is your buying actually handing over chips to mid-sized whales preparing to dump on super whales." When on-chain data shows that $130 million in selling pressure is being released, the slogan "bullish return" sounds particularly harsh.

Discussion Topic

How do you view the changing whale behavior in DOGE?

A. The continued accumulation by mid-sized whales is solid proof of reversal; $0.15 will break

B. The retreat of super whales is a warning sign; a correction is imminent

C. DOGE is outdated; funds will flow into PEPE/BONK and other new MEME coins

✍️ Leave your choice + reasons in the comments

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Disclaimer: This article is based solely on on-chain data and technical analysis and does not constitute investment advice. MEME coins are highly volatile; please implement strict risk management and make cautious decisions.

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