What is the latest saying in the options market? Just look at Deribit’s data.

Over the past month, Bitcoin has experienced quite a few twists and turns. It has fallen, rebounded, and dragged on for a while. But from a derivatives perspective, an interesting thing is happening — traders are starting to bet on Bitcoin returning to $100,000 by the end of January.

**What do the options data say?**

The open interest for Bitcoin call options with a $100,000 strike price expiring on January 30 is twice as large as the open interest for put options with an $80,000 strike price during the same period. This is no coincidence. Large amounts of capital are betting real money that this psychological barrier can be broken.

Looking at it from another angle: if the market were still in panic mode, traders would be frantically buying low-strike put options to protect their assets. But now? That "panic premium" has significantly diminished. The market no longer expects the worst.

**Institutional buying has returned**

This Monday, the net inflow into the US Bitcoin spot ETF was $697 million — the largest single-day inflow since October 7 of last year. Institutional investors are starting to re-enter the market.

The logic behind this is actually simple: traditional assets like gold and tech stocks are rising, but Bitcoin, after a deep dip, appears to be "price lagging." This dislocation creates opportunities for bullish options.

**How strong is the resistance?**

But reality always likes to pour cold water. Over the past few months, Bitcoin has repeatedly surged toward key resistance levels, only to fall back quickly each time. The selling pressure above is really intense.

The market’s view is this: Bitcoin must effectively hold above $106,000 on the weekly chart to gain the momentum to challenge new all-time highs. If it can hold the $90,000 support level smoothly, the next key target might be around $105,000.

**The final equal sign**

The structure of options positions and the ETF capital inflow trends all point to the same conclusion: traders are indeed betting with real money that Bitcoin will return to $100,000. The question is, can it truly break through those stubborn resistance zones this time? That will require time and price action to verify. The market never believes what is said; it only believes what happens on the chart.