The global market in 2026 will face triple pressures: escalating geopolitical tensions, the upcoming US midterm elections, and divergence in central bank policies across countries. Analysts point out that the real risks often lurk in overlooked corners of the market—unexpected macro shocks or sudden policy shifts are the most likely black swan events to catch investors off guard.

The independence of central banks has become a reality under scrutiny. The current Federal Reserve Chair’s term will end in May, and the nomination for the new chair is set to be finalized in January, marking a critical juncture. More troubling is that US leadership has already pressured the Fed to cut interest rates, severely constraining the central bank’s policy space.

Hidden here are the tail risks most likely to be overlooked in 2026. If rate cuts exceed what the economy actually needs, loose monetary policy could spiral out of control, pushing up prices and ultimately forcing a sudden brake—such policy reversals can be highly disruptive to markets; just think of last year’s volatility.

The political agenda is also exerting pressure. The Supreme Court is about to rule on the legality of broad tariffs, with the November midterm elections looming. Geopolitically, tensions in the Americas are also rising, adding layers of uncertainty.

The AI boom that once fueled tech stocks has now become a potential risk—when will the bubble burst? These are all areas traders need to watch closely in 2026.