The recent trend of SOL can actually be divided into three completely different timeframes, each with its own logic. This is also why many people are easily shaken out—they confuse short-term noise with medium- and long-term trends.

**Limited Short-term Rebound Space**

Currently, this position (around $137.5-$140) is a typical oscillation rebound. This is not a V-shaped reversal but a normal correction near previous highs. The key resistance is at 142; if it can effectively hold here, there is room for further upward rebound. But if it repeatedly oscillates between 138-142, it indicates the market is still confirming the direction.

Support levels are at 127, and further down at 116. If it breaks below 116, it means the short-term structure is completely broken, and a reassessment is needed.

**Medium-term Variables Are Accumulating**

By the first half of 2026, SOL’s price center is expected to shift to the range of 150-170. It sounds optimistic, but there are two specific factors supporting this: continuous capital inflow into spot ETFs and technical upgrades at the Solana network layer (Firedancer and other performance optimizations) that are actually being implemented. If both progress smoothly, there’s even a possibility of breaking through $200.

But the premise is that it must not fall back below $100. Once it loses $100, the medium-term logic must be overturned and reassessed.

**Long-term Uncertainty Is Pulling**

If only looking at fundamentals and ecological development, a reasonable expectation for SOL in 2026 should be in the range of 180-220. Optimistically, if ecological expansion goes smoothly and stablecoins and payment scenarios are truly implemented, it could even reach 260+. But this estimate assumes no regulatory surprises and no sharp macro liquidity tightening.

The worst-case scenario is simultaneous regulatory and macro pressure, which could cause SOL to fall below $100 and enter an extremely pessimistic trend.

**Core Risks and Opportunities**

The driving forces supporting SOL’s rise include: seasonal factors (usually stronger in January after December adjustments), genuine inflow of spot ETF funds, and substantial improvements in network stability and performance. These are not just stories—they are being realized.

Caution is needed regarding: the stability of the Solana network remains a critical weakness; a serious incident could destroy valuation consensus. Meanwhile, ETH ecosystem Layer 2 solutions and other new blockchains are also diverting developers and capital. Changes in macro liquidity and regulatory attitudes could reverse at any time.

**Technical Reference Levels**

From RSI, SOL has returned to the bullish zone, but confirmation requires volume to stabilize at the 138 level. Upward resistance levels are sequentially 138, 144, 150, 170. Downside supports are at 127 and 116, with 100 as an emotional safeguard.

**Practical Trading Approach**

In the short term, if you want to participate in the rebound, a pullback to 124-127 is a good low-entry point, but be sure to set a stop-loss at 116. For chasing breakouts, wait for an effective break above 141 before entering, with targets at 146-150.

For the medium term, take profits in stages between 150-170 and avoid holding on stubbornly. If it breaks below 100, immediately reduce risk exposure and do not hold through the decline.

The last principle is risk management: for SOL as a single asset, its proportion in total assets should not exceed 10%. Once profits are realized, lock in gains with trailing stops to prevent a reversal of gains.