【Ethereum Short-Term Technical Signals Frequently Appear, Mid-Term Structure Still Supported】

Recently, I analyzed ETH's 1-hour K-line performance (perpetual contract cycle), combined with on-chain activity and current market environment, and identified several overlooked key points — there is indeed short-term correction pressure, but based on on-chain accumulation actions, there is still room for a mid-level breakout.

**Signs of Technical Fatigue**

The price is currently at 3220.70, tightly hugging the upper Bollinger Band (3253.75). Historically, whenever the price reaches the upper band, technical selling pressure tends to emerge, and this time is no exception, with obvious resistance. More concerning is the MACD indicator — DIF (13.01) has already fallen below DEA (15.65), and the histogram turned negative at -5.28, indicating that upward momentum is waning, and the risk of a dead cross on the hourly chart is increasing. Regarding moving averages, MA7 (3222.75) and EMA7 (3221.59) are forming short-term resistance, although still above MA30 (3199.26), the decreasing volume and sideways oscillation suggest insufficient strength for a breakout.

**On-Chain Data Tells a Different Story**

In the past 24 hours, over 32,000 ETH have flowed from exchanges to cold wallets (Glassnode data), a typical sign of large holders accumulating, usually indicating a medium to long-term bullish attitude. However, at the same time, perpetual contract open interest has surged 18% in a week, with leverage stacking heavily — once price volatility occurs, it could easily trigger a chain of liquidations, intensifying recent fluctuations.

**Market Bulls and Bears Tug-of-War**

On the positive side, Ethereum plans to test the Dencun upgrade prototype next week, with expectations of increased Layer 2 fee optimization, and institutional funds continue to flow into ETF derivatives. But on the risk side, the Federal Reserve’s January policy meeting is approaching, and hawkish comments could suppress risk assets. The threat of a macro sentiment shift cannot be ignored.

**How to View This Situation**

In the short term (1-2 days), technical indicators are overbought, and with MACD weakening, the price is likely to retrace to the middle Bollinger Band (3217.50), possibly even test support zones around 3180-3200. During this process, highly leveraged longs may be shaken out. However, in the medium term (1-2 weeks), on-chain accumulation is not yet complete, and positive news about the upgrade is still present, so after the correction, there is a high probability of resuming the upward trend. Focus can be placed on the previous high area of 3300-3350.

The short-term correction may actually present an opportunity for mid-term positioning.