The start of the new year has left the cryptocurrency market somewhat perplexed. On one hand, there's a thriving rebound rally; on the other, unsettling signals are everywhere.

Do you remember last year's plunge? Dropping from $126,000 to $94,000, a 25% decline that disrupted the market in the last quarter of 2025. I've been involved in crypto since 2017, and those so-called "end-of-cycle theories" have worn out my ears—yet each time, it’s just the opening act for the next market rally.

After Bitcoin hit a historic high in October last year, the entire market plunged into madness. But a closer look reveals familiar top signals: altcoins surging wildly, leverage ratios soaring, market sentiment jumping from fear to greed in one breath. Now, Bitcoin hovers around $94,000, bouncing back and forth, with bulls and bears fighting fiercely. This isn't just a short-term price game; it could very well determine the market's direction for the next several years.

Let's look at the current situation. In January, Bitcoin once surged to $94,750, hitting a nearly three-week high. On the surface, it seems promising. But a few details warrant caution.

The driving force behind this rebound is questionable. It’s likely just a mechanical short-covering triggered by stop-losses rather than fresh capital entering the market. While prices are rising, trading volume is shrinking. This divergence is hard to ignore from a technical perspective—suggesting the rebound may not have as much momentum as it appears.