Schiff criticizes Bitcoin again: sells coins during the rebound to buy gold, but his bearish track record is worth questioning

Peter Schiff is back. This well-known gold supporter and “permanent bear” recently stated that Bitcoin rebounded above $94,500 driven by the Venezuela incident, but he believes this rally lacks fundamental support, with bulls merely speculating on the news, and he urges investors to take the opportunity to sell and switch to “real gold.”

The rebound has momentum, but the fundamentals are questionable

According to the latest data, Bitcoin has increased by 0.65% in the past 24 hours and 6.36% over the past 7 days, with the current price around $93,000. This rebound is indeed related to the Venezuela geopolitical event, providing short-term market sentiment boost.

However, Schiff’s concerns are supported by data. The Coinbase Premium Index, while improved, remains negative at -0.196%, indicating that selling pressure on US exchanges persists, or that US investor demand remains weak. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 58.72, suggesting room for further gains but not overbought. In other words, this rally appears more like a technical rebound rather than a trend driven by fundamentals.

Asset allocation battle amid strong gold performance

Schiff’s bullish view on gold is well supported by recent data. Gold prices in 2025 have increased by over 60%, marking the best annual performance in over four decades, with current gold prices fluctuating between $4,300 and $4,400 per ounce.

Even more interesting is the relative performance of Bitcoin versus gold. The BTC-to-gold ratio has fallen from 40 ounces at the start of the year to 21 ounces, meaning the cost to exchange Bitcoin for gold has nearly halved—implying gold has appreciated relative to Bitcoin. This aligns with Schiff’s point: in the current macro environment, gold outperforms Bitcoin significantly.

Factors driving gold strength

• Rising geopolitical risks: Venezuela incident, US-China strategic competition, etc., boosting safe-haven demand
• Central bank purchases: 2025 central bank gold buying hits record highs
• Weak US dollar expectations: Gold and USD have an inverse relationship; gold tends to strengthen when the dollar weakens
• De-dollarization trend: BRICS and other countries promote currency diversification, increasing demand for gold as a store of value

How reliable are Schiff’s bearish calls?

This is a key question. According to historical records, Schiff predicted Bitcoin would go to zero during its 2020 surge, but now Bitcoin has risen from that level to over $90,000. His current bearish stance inevitably raises questions about his track record.

Limitations of Schiff’s outlook

• Questionable track record: Multiple past bearish calls on Bitcoin have been proven wrong; the accuracy of this prediction remains to be seen
• Blind spots: May overlook effects like Bitcoin halving, institutional adoption, technological innovation, etc.
• Market uncertainties: Macro variables such as Federal Reserve policies and liquidity expectations could trigger new rallies

Summary

Schiff’s current bearish view is somewhat supported by data—the fundamentals behind Bitcoin’s rebound are indeed questionable, and gold’s strong performance is undeniable. However, claiming Bitcoin will weaken significantly or crash outright ignores historical lessons.

In the short term, Bitcoin faces pressure with Coinbase Premium index negative, while gold’s strength may continue amid ongoing geopolitical risks. But from a medium-term perspective, Bitcoin’s fixed supply, digital portability, and increasing institutional recognition suggest that it cannot be dismissed outright based on Schiff’s views.

The true investment approach should be: avoid blindly chasing Bitcoin’s rebound and also avoid dismissing its long-term value. Gold and Bitcoin may each perform well under different macro conditions; the key is understanding their respective drivers rather than choosing one over the other.