Polymarket has started charging fees, changing the competitive landscape of prediction markets

The leading prediction market Polymarket is adjusting its business model. According to official documentation, Polymarket will soon implement trading fees in the 15-minute crypto rise and fall markets, with a maximum charge of 3% taker fee. This is the platform’s first introduction of a fee mechanism in short-term markets, marking a shift from a completely free prediction market to a paid model.

Core Content of the Fee Adjustment

Policy Change Details

Polymarket’s official documentation has added a “Trading Fees” page, clearly stating that fees will be enabled in the 15-minute crypto rise and fall markets. This means that users trading in these high-frequency, short-cycle markets will need to bear a maximum of 3% trading costs. In contrast, traditional long-term political and sports prediction markets have previously remained free or low-cost.

Why the 15-minute market

The 15-minute crypto rise and fall markets are among the most active and popular segments on Polymarket. These markets have short cycles and frequent trading, making them attractive to high-frequency traders. The fee may serve two considerations: first, these markets have the highest trading costs; second, implementing a fee mechanism can filter participants and reduce platform risk.

Market Background and Competitive Pressure

Polymarket’s Ecosystem Status

According to the latest data, Polymarket and Kalshi are tied as prediction market leaders, but new entrant Opinion has already matched their trading volume by December 2025, forming a tripartite competition. This intensifying competition may push Polymarket to optimize its revenue model.

Polymarket has recently seen sustained high activity. From Federal Reserve chair nominations, Bitcoin price predictions, to geopolitical events, various markets have attracted substantial funds. In early January, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 in January on the platform once rose to 38%, indicating high user engagement.

Role of Insider Trading Scandal

Recently, Polymarket was involved in an insider trading scandal triggered by the Maduro arrest incident, attracting the attention of US regulators. U.S. lawmakers have proposed the “2026 Financial Prediction Market Public Integrity Act” to combat insider trading in prediction markets. This regulatory pressure may prompt Polymarket to enhance platform compliance and risk management through measures such as fees.

Potential Impact on Users and the Market

Possible Changes in User Behavior

• High-frequency traders may migrate to competitors that still offer free trading
• Participation in medium- and long-term prediction markets may relatively increase
• Trading strategies need adjustment; the 3% fee must be factored into profit calculations

Industry Signals and Outlook

This adjustment reflects several trends in the prediction market industry:

Mature Business Model: Moving from entirely free to differentiated fee-based models indicates prediction platforms are pursuing sustainable business strategies.

Regulatory Pressure: Insider trading scandals and regulatory attention are pushing platforms to strengthen risk management and compliance, with fee adjustments possibly serving as part of this effort.

Intensified Competition: The rise of new entrants and user acquisition pressures compel leading platforms to optimize themselves. Polymarket’s move may be paving the way for more differentiated fee structures.

In the short term, this adjustment may impact trading volume in the 15-minute markets. But in the long run, it reflects the evolution of prediction markets from speculative playgrounds to mature financial instruments. Users should be aware that the era of free prediction markets may be coming to an end.

Summary

Polymarket is introducing a maximum 3% trading fee in the 15-minute crypto rise and fall markets, marking a shift from a completely free platform to a paid model. This change reflects both the platform’s business model maturation and regulatory and industry pressures. Short-term traders need to reassess costs and benefits, and Polymarket’s move may also prompt competitors to respond. The prediction market industry is evolving from rapid growth to regulated development.