Hayes predicts Bitcoin will hit $575,000. Is this prediction reliable?

Arthur Hayes has issued another bold prediction. The founder of BitMEX and head of Maelstrom Fund states that Bitcoin could rise to $575,000 by the end of 2026. From the current price of $93,251, this implies an increase of over 500%. Once the statement was made, market discussions heated up, and some questioned whether this was just another “crypto big shot’s brag.” But it’s worth noting that Hayes isn’t just talking—he’s putting real money on the line.

What is Hayes’s logical chain?

Central bank easing is the fundamental premise

Hayes’s prediction is based on a core judgment: that global central banks will continue expanding their balance sheets, and monetary issuance pressures will not ease. He points out that the current global economy faces multiple dilemmas—high debt, stubborn inflation, sluggish growth. In this context, policy options for countries’ central banks are quite limited—once the economy slows further, the most direct tool remains monetary easing.

Historically, each round of large-scale liquidity injection has weakened the purchasing power of fiat currencies. This isn’t a new idea, but in the current policy environment, this logic indeed has persuasive power.

Bitcoin’s scarcity value becomes more prominent

This is the key point in Hayes’s argument. Unlike continuously increasing fiat currencies, Bitcoin’s total supply is permanently capped at 21 million coins, unaffected by any government or central bank. During periods of fiat devaluation, this hard scarcity becomes a unique attraction.

When investor confidence in traditional monetary systems declines, funds tend to flow into non-sovereign assets like Bitcoin. Hayes believes this trend is no longer niche—institutional investors, corporate balance sheet allocations, professional custody services, etc., are reshaping Bitcoin’s supply and demand dynamics.

Market structure has already changed

Hayes emphasizes that Bitcoin’s market structure today is very different from the early days. Factors like Bitcoin ETFs, institutional participation, corporate holdings make demand more diversified. Meanwhile, the new supply is limited (fixed daily mining output), creating a foundation for price increases.

How aggressive is the prediction?

From $93,251 to $575,000, that’s indeed a bold figure. But looking at historical cycles:

Hayes points out that in multiple past market cycles, whenever global liquidity expanded significantly, Bitcoin was often among the fastest-reacting and most volatile risk assets. From this perspective, a 516% increase is aggressive but not entirely unimaginable under the continued “money printing” logic.

He’s not just talking

What makes Hayes’s prediction more convincing is his actual actions. According to recent news, Maelstrom Fund is already “nearly fully invested” for 2026. This isn’t small-scale—he’s betting real money on his judgment.

A specific example is the River project. This blockchain-based stablecoin protocol received strategic investment from Maelstrom, and subsequently, the RIVER token surged 600% in a week, with on-chain trading volume soaring to $2.6 billion. While such gains carry bubble risks, at least it shows the market recognizes Hayes’s investment insight.

At the same time, Hayes also pointed out an interesting geopolitical dimension: U.S. efforts to control Venezuela are suppressing oil prices, which could give the Trump administration more room for monetary easing and fiscal expansion. In such an environment, nominal GDP growth would push up risk assets, and Bitcoin, as an inflation hedge, would naturally be a top choice.

But this is not a certainty

Hayes himself admits that $575,000 “is not a guaranteed outcome, but a long-term extrapolation based on global monetary trends.” Bitcoin remains a highly volatile asset, and many uncertainties exist—policy changes, geopolitical conflicts, technical risks—that could alter expectations.

Furthermore, this prediction assumes the “money printing” trend continues unchanged. If global central banks unexpectedly tighten or inflation quickly recedes, the foundation of this thesis could be undermined.

Summary

Hayes’s $57,500 prediction is bold, but the underlying logic isn’t baseless. Central bank easing, Bitcoin’s scarcity, market structure changes, increased institutional participation—these are observable realities. His real investments through Maelstrom demonstrate he’s not just talking, which adds credibility to his forecast.

However, the realization of this prediction depends on multiple conditions aligning, and the future is always uncertain. For investors, the key isn’t blind belief or outright skepticism but understanding the underlying logic and making judgments within their risk tolerance. Over the next 11 months, closely watching global liquidity policies, institutional involvement, and the evolution of Bitcoin’s market structure will be crucial.