Recently, many people have been asking: The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates, so why hasn't Bitcoin gone up yet? Actually, the issue isn't that simple.

On the surface, it looks like rates are being cut, but real interest rates haven't actually loosened at all. After stripping out inflation, the real interest rate remains high, and the suppressive effect on risk assets still exists. It's like offering a discount in a store, but the cost of goods hasn't decreased, so consumers' purchasing power hasn't really increased.

Looking deeper, continuous issuance of US Treasury bonds is like a black hole swallowing market liquidity. The money held by institutions is locked into government bonds, naturally leading to a lack of blood supply in the crypto assets sector. Recently, gold prices have been rising, which is actually a sign of early positioning.

The most painful part is the financial intermediary sector—the banking system hasn't fully restored its transmission capability, and the liquidity transfer chain from the Federal Reserve to the market has been broken. It's like a hotpot restaurant lowering costs, but there's no staff in the kitchen or service, so no matter how cheap it is, the business can't be saved.

So, while rate cuts are real, how much actual liquidity they can release is the key. Whether BTC can rise depends on the subsequent shift in fiscal policy and those sudden geopolitical events. The signals from next week's FOMC meeting are worth paying close attention to, as this could be the turning point. Don't just look at the interest rate numbers; focus on where the real money in the market is coming from.