#数字资产动态追踪 When two signals appear simultaneously, they point to the same direction

Recently, the crypto market has sparked a wave of public opinion. Fundstrat Chief Analyst Tom Lee publicly stated in a TV interview: Bitcoin could reach $200,000 to $250,000 by 2026. Coincidentally, at the same time, industry leaders like Gemini, Crypto.com, and others have donated a total of $21 million to U.S. political institutions. While each of these events might seem ordinary on its own, together they reveal a deeper logic—the policy environment is reshaping expectations for crypto assets.

Tom Lee’s prediction is not baseless. His core view is based on the assumption of "U.S. government support," and the timeline of this assumption coincides with the political donation cycle of the crypto industry. Crypto companies are aligning themselves with key candidates in the 2026 elections, with a clear goal: to secure a clearer policy framework and favorable regulatory stance.

Historical data speaks volumes. Over the past 20 years, the U.S. election cycle has shown a significant positive correlation with Bitcoin’s long-term trend—whenever the political climate leans toward supporting emerging financial assets, Bitcoin’s price tends to outperform expectations. The current situation is even more favorable: after Trump’s return, crypto-friendly policy signals have been released, and the market has high expectations for policy continuity into 2026.

Three possible upward channels:

From a policy perspective, if crypto-related bills advance in Congress, it will significantly reduce industry compliance costs and policy risks. This is a necessary prerequisite for institutional allocation. From a funding perspective, since its launch, Bitcoin spot ETF capital inflows have exceeded those of gold ETFs by tenfold during the same period. This indicates a qualitative shift in traditional investors’ recognition of Bitcoin. From a technical standpoint, 2026 falls in the late stage of the previous halving cycle, where slowing supply growth and rising demand create a contradiction that has historically been associated with significant price increases.

However, to be honest, risk and opportunity are often two sides of the same coin. Policy support may come with stricter identity verification and transaction monitoring requirements. The involvement of institutional forces is changing the market landscape, and the influence of retail investors is relatively declining. There’s also a bigger premise: the $250,000 target assumes that the U.S. economy does not enter a recession. If the economic situation reverses, all these expectations could be rewritten.

How to respond to this uncertainty? Develop a Bitcoin-centric mindset, reduce frequent switching between coins. Focus on platforms and custody services that follow a regulated approach—they will be the mainstream in the future. The most practical move: set aside cash positions to cope with potential volatility during the election period; a 30% cash ratio is a reasonable buffer.

Finally, this question is worth pondering: if Bitcoin really hits $250,000 in 2026, what do you think will be the decisive factor? Is it the Fed’s pace of rate cuts? Or Congress passing a dedicated cryptocurrency law? Or large-scale allocations by global sovereign funds? Or perhaps a technological breakthrough, such as the widespread adoption of Layer 3 applications? The trajectory of assets like $BTC, $ETH, and $BNB ultimately depends on the answers to these questions.