Venezuela's real upside lies beyond 2030. For now, don't expect fireworks.

Short-term outlook? Pretty flat. Global oil markets won't see dramatic shifts from Venezuela in the coming weeks, months, or even several years. Energy supply dynamics remain largely unchanged in the near term.

And that's being optimistic about it.

The takeaway: big structural changes in regional oil production are a long game. Anyone betting on immediate energy market disruption is looking at the wrong timeline. The macro picture here is about patience—real catalyst won't land until we're well past the end of this decade.