This wave of market conditions is indeed somewhat mystical. On one side, the Federal Reserve is continuously cutting interest rates and injecting liquidity into the market; on the other side, Japanese government bond yields are skyrocketing, wildly absorbing global liquidity. The crypto market is caught in the middle, with no clear upward momentum and no reason to fall either. Recently, many people have asked me whether to buy or sell, and I think it all comes down to the macro game theory.

Simply put, right now there are two forces fighting against each other. The Federal Reserve wants to release liquidity and direct money toward risk assets. Japan, on the contrary, is tightening liquidity to bring funds back into the yen. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have become the focal point of this tug-of-war. Why is volatility so high? Because both sides are temporarily evenly matched, and neither can come up with a definitive winning move.

But there's a detail that is often overlooked: Japan's interest rate hikes are forced, while the Fed's rate cuts are proactive. Japan's long-term zero interest rate policy has pushed itself into a corner— the yen is depreciating rapidly, and inflation is climbing. If they don't adjust soon, serious problems could arise. According to the latest analysis from J.P. Morgan, the Bank of Japan may continue to raise interest rates in April next year, which means the global liquidity contraction could last even longer.

Looking at the Federal Reserve, its rate-cutting pace is actually quite cautious, with only 25 basis points cut each time. The liquidity released is much smaller compared to the move last year.

So what is the key now? In the short term, this tug-of-war will continue, and volatility will become more frequent. But in the long run, once the Fed's rate-cut cycle is established, liquidity will ultimately tilt toward risk assets. The question is: when will that happen? That tests one’s vision and luck.

My advice to ordinary investors is: don't try to time the market precisely, as it's easy to get caught out. Instead of frequently entering and exiting, it's better to choose good sectors and projects, then gradually build positions. The current market volatility is actually a good opportunity to accumulate chips.