XRP and Dogecoin ETFs all rise over 20%, is this driven by institutional allocation or retail speculation?

In the first week of 2026, the US spot XRP ETF and Dogecoin ETF performed strongly, with weekly gains exceeding 20%, making them the most watched assets in the crypto market. However, the underlying capital driving logic behind the two is completely different. The synchronized capital inflows from institutions and retail investors at the beginning of the year are outlining a more complex market structure.

XRP ETF: Continuous Choice by Institutions

The performance of the XRP spot ETF best reflects the stable attitude of institutional funds. According to the latest data, the ETF’s capital inflow has maintained positive growth for 33 consecutive days, which is extremely rare in the crypto market. On January 2 alone, the net inflow into the XRP ETF reached $13.59 million, pushing its total net assets to $1.37 billion.

More notably, since its listing in mid-November 2025, the XRP ETF has hardly experienced significant capital withdrawals, even amid phase-out flows in other crypto ETFs. What does this indicate? Institutional investors continue to recognize the long-term value of holding XRP.

In terms of price performance, XRP has gradually risen after regaining a key support level near $2. Short-term target is around $2.30. As of the latest data, XRP is priced at $2.39, up 12.31% in 24 hours, with a 7-day increase of 29.07%. This steady upward pace, combined with continuous ETF inflows, creates a positive feedback loop.

Dogecoin ETF: Retail Sentiment Reversal

The Dogecoin ETF shows a completely different rhythm. After weeks of low trading activity, capital inflows rebounded significantly on January 2, with a single-day net inflow of about $2.3 million, pushing the ETF’s total assets to $8.34 million. Although still smaller than the XRP ETF, this shift reflects a marginal improvement in market sentiment.

The rise of Dogecoin is driven more by momentum and sentiment. From a low of $0.13, it rebounded to around $0.14, with high beta characteristics amplified by retail participation. Notably, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas pointed out that the 2x leveraged Dogecoin ETF has led the US crypto ETF market in early 2026, with particularly sharp short-term gains, indicating that retail risk appetite is rebounding.

Two Logics, One Market

These two different participation logics jointly outline the structural features of the crypto ETF market in early 2026: institutions are rebalancing assets for the new year, while retail investors are seeking high-risk opportunities as market sentiment shifts.

Future Focus

Key support and resistance levels

• XRP’s key support is in the $2.05 to $2.10 range; holding this level could allow it to continue advancing toward $2.30.
• Dogecoin’s performance depends more on overall market risk appetite; the presence of leverage products will amplify any directional volatility.

Signs of liquidity tightening

The continued inflow into XRP ETF indicates more XRP being locked in ETFs, which could further tighten market liquidity and serve as a price support factor.

Summary

The early 2026 rally is not driven by a single factor but reflects both stable institutional allocations and a rebound in retail risk appetite. XRP demonstrates institutional recognition of long-term value, while Dogecoin reflects a marginal shift in market sentiment. Both point to a signal: the crypto market is recovering from the pessimism at the end of 2025, but the sustainability of this recovery ultimately depends on the continued strength of institutional capital. In the short term, the key is to hold support levels; in the medium term, it remains to see whether ETF capital inflows can maintain this momentum.