#预测市场 Polymarket's BTC prediction market has experienced a clear shift in sentiment over the past two days. The probability of reaching $100,000 has dropped from 10% to 8%, while the forecasted probability of $95,000 has declined from 32% to 25%. Conversely, the risk assessment of falling below $80,000 has risen to 15%.

This change is noteworthy. Market participants' risk appetite is contracting, and expectations for upward movement are loosening. From a capital game perspective, this may reflect two signals: first, profit-taking pressure as the year-end approaches; second, a re-pricing of the difficulty in reaching the $100,000 threshold in the short term.

The probability of the $95,000 line has moved relatively mildly (from 32% to 25%), indicating that medium-term support remains. However, the risk below $80,000 is clearly increasing, and the prediction market seems to be reassessing the safety margin at the bottom.

It is important to note that the pricing in prediction markets is often emotion-driven, and participant structure and time windows can influence the final probabilities. For strategic judgment, it is also necessary to cross-verify on-chain capital flows and large holdings movements. Currently, the data mainly reflect a short-term market sentiment adjustment.