If you’ve recently looked at the market charts and seen nothing but "ECG"-style fluctuations—bad news selling off, good news hardly causing any reaction—your experience is not isolated. In fact, the sideways consolidation in the first half of the year is precisely a pattern left behind by history.

I’ve been studying Bitcoin for over ten years, from the first cycle in 2013 to the wave of institutional capital entering in 2021, and I’ve gradually discovered a proven rule: before each real bull market starts, the market goes through about 9 months of "accumulation period," during which the first 6 months are essentially about market selection—filtering out retail investors with unstable mindsets.

Using numbers to speak is more convincing. In that 2013 cycle, Bitcoin fluctuated between $100 and $200 for half a year. At that time, the first reaction to Bitcoin was mostly criticism, with all kinds of "scam theories" flying around. But by the seventh month, the price suddenly broke through $300, then surged straight to $1100—those who stuck it out made a killing.

2017 was even more exciting. In the first 6 months, Bitcoin oscillated repeatedly between $2000 and $4000, with the media full of "bubble" rhetoric. But starting from the seventh month, it broke through $5000 and by the end of the year, it nearly hit $20,000. Some said it was the last buying opportunity, and indeed it was—except that the "last chance" was proven wrong several times.

The 2021 situation is especially worth recalling. In the first 6 months, it bounced between $30,000 and $50,000. During that period, a tweet from Elon Musk saying "we do not accept Bitcoin payments" caused the market to drop sharply. But from the seventh month onward, institutional funds quietly entered, pushing the price to a new high of $69,000. Those who gave up in the first 6 months could only watch the later gains sitting there.

Three cycles, three validations—this pattern has become quite clear. How similar is the current situation to this pattern? The sideways consolidation, filtering, and psychological battles in the first 6 months—this script has hardly changed. But what’s interesting this time is that the market structure is more complex than before. The level of institutional participation, the scale of derivatives, global policy fluctuations—all add new variables to the story.

The key is, while history repeats, it never copies exactly. Instead of guessing whether the seventh month will arrive, it’s better to ask yourself: are you the type of person who can withstand the filtering of the first 6 months?