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Institutions accelerating entry, friendly regulation, AI optimism—unveiling the true drivers behind Bitcoin's recent surge
【BlockBeats】Recently, Bitcoin has risen by 5%. What is the common saying on Wall Street? They blame it on the logic of Venezuela’s oil reserves release, falling oil prices, easing inflation, and expectations of rate cuts. But this explanation has issues.
In the short term, the probability of rate cuts is actually similar to last week, with no significant change. Even looking ahead to the end of 2026, expectations of rate cuts remain stable. So what is the real reason behind this over 5% surge in Bitcoin?
Institutional money is truly flowing in. Since the launch of the spot Bitcoin ETF in 2024, institutional funds have never stopped. Major platforms like Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill Lynch have recently accelerated significantly—on January 2 alone, they injected $500 million into Bitcoin ETFs. This is not small-scale activity; it indicates a systemic asset allocation shift.
Regulatory sentiment has completely changed. After the 2024 elections, crypto-friendly policies are gradually being implemented. Large-scale funds such as wealth management firms, university endowments, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds are now seriously and systematically allocating to Bitcoin. This shift is not temporary but a long-term structural change.
AI bubble anxiety is dissipating. Previously, the market worried about a huge AI bubble, but this concern is easing. Investor sentiment is turning optimistic, and funds are flowing into risk assets—tech stocks and Bitcoin are both benefiting from this heat.
The story of rate cuts and liquidity is not over yet. The Maduro event did not change the market’s short-term rate cut expectations; the story of quantitative easing(QE) has just begun. The market expects a 50 basis point or more rate cut by 2026, which is a long-term positive for risk assets like Bitcoin.
The Venezuelan event did cause some volatility over the weekend, but it is not the main driver of this rally. The real momentum comes from the acceleration of institutional adoption, improved policy environment, market sentiment recovery, and easing expectations stacking together.