The altcoin market is experiencing a "winnerless" game, and is there still a chance for altcoins in 2026? How can we break through?

The massive tokens left over from the 2021-2022 fundraising bubble are being dumped into a market with exhausted demand.
The problem is that the mechanism causing this crisis is still operating.
1️⃣ The Dilemma of Low Circulation: A Four-Party Zero-Sum Game
Over the past three years, the industry has relied on a fatal model: low circulation issuance (circulation rate in the single digits + high FDV).
At first glance, it seems to maintain prices, but in reality, it only delays collapse—when unlocked, selling pressure piles up like a mountain.
Ironically, this mechanism makes everyone think they are benefiting alone, but in fact, everyone is losing:
· Exchanges believe controlling circulation can protect their market share, but it invites community criticism and price crashes
· Holders think they can prevent dumps, but there’s no true price discovery, and they face backlash from early supporters
· Projects believe they can maintain high valuations, but they erode the industry’s overall fundraising capacity
· Venture capitalists think they can raise funds at low market cap, but long-term exit routes are cut off
A perfect four-party zero-sum matrix. Everyone is playing a big-picture game, but the game’s rules are inherently unfavorable to all.
2️⃣ Why did the two market self-help efforts fail?
First Round: Meme Coins
Slogan: “100% circulation, no VC, fully fair.”
But reality: no filtering → rampant rogue coins → 98% of people lose money.
Winners are only the issuing teams and Pump.fun.
Second Round: MetaDAO
An extreme approach: holders gain power, KPI releases, low initial valuation.
But new problems emerge:
· Talented founders don’t want to relinquish control early → “Lemon market” formation
· Infinite issuance mechanism → listing difficulties on mainstream exchanges → liquidity depletion
These two attempts proved that: markets self-adjust, but still haven’t found a balance point.
3️⃣ What kind of rebalancing is needed to break through?
Exchanges
No longer should they seek unlimited lock-up extensions. Focus on: predictable release plans + KPI releases + accountability mechanisms.
Holders
Should not overly control operations, but pursue: transparency of information, fund oversight rights, and value attribution guarantees.
Projects
Should stop issuing tokens compulsively for fundraising. Tokens are not “worse stocks.”
Venture Capital
Not all projects need tokens. Return to fundamentals: invest in projects suited for token models, accept rational releases and returns.
4️⃣ The Next 12 Months: The Final Supply Shock
Remaining projects from the previous VC bubble will continue issuing tokens over the next year.
If this period is overcome:
· By the end of 2026, old projects will be completed or disappear
· Fundraising costs remain high, new project supply is limited
· Primary market valuations will gradually rationalize
Decisions made three years ago shaped today’s market,
and today’s actions will determine the landscape three years from now.
5️⃣ Long-term Threats: Will Altcoins Turn into a “Lemon Market”?
Dangerous paths:
· Failed projects continue issuing to survive
· Successful projects convert into traditional stocks
· Only “no-choice” scam projects remain in the token market
However, I still believe in the value of the token model:
· Growth accelerators: Ethena rapidly rose with token mechanisms
· Building loyal communities: Hyperliquid traders become ecosystem guardians
· Space for game theory innovation: cooperation and incentives impossible with stocks
6️⃣ Self-correction Has Already Begun
· Listing standards at top-tier exchanges have become significantly stricter
· Innovations like DAO governance and IP ownership structures are being tested
· The market is learning through pain
We are at the bottom of the cycle.
Digesting bubbles, rebuilding rules, and selecting quality projects—
This process takes time, but the seeds for the next phase are already being cultivated.
Finally
The altcoin market stands at a crossroads.
The four-party zero-sum dilemma is not the end but a structural deadlock that must be broken.
The answer does not lie in complex designs but in returning to fundamentals:
Tokens are tools to strengthen ecosystems, not shortcuts for fundraising.
When we look back three years from now, do we want to leave behind a healthier system or another bubble waiting to collapse?
The industry now holds the power to choose.
(Rhino Crypto Society: Reproduction and discussion are welcome. Please cite the source when quoting.)