Ethereum surges to $3100: 629 million in short positions are hanging by a thread, who will exit first?

Ethereum is heading towards a “fame and fortune” event—breaking through $3100 puts 629 million USD of short orders at risk of liquidation. However, this seemingly certain liquidation wave hides the true intentions of both bulls and bears. Market sentiment swings between greed and caution, and technical signals remain ambiguous. We need to analyze calmly whether this liquidation can truly trigger as expected.

Market Sentiment First: What Are Traders Watching?

Based on current market discussion heat, investors show a clear divide in their attitude towards Ethereum. On one side are the optimistic bulls betting that Ethereum will follow Bitcoin’s rise; on the other are contrarians cautious about US-China trade negotiations. This split sentiment is key to judging whether the $3100 level can be broken.

The RWA narrative in the crypto market continues to heat up, providing potential buying support for Ethereum as an asset on-chain infrastructure. Meanwhile, discussions around policy measures concerning BTC strategic reserves indirectly boost overall market confidence. But caution is needed—how long can this confidence last?

Technical Analysis: Is $3100 Really That Impregnable?

Ethereum’s current price is $3.14K, almost within reach of $3100. Short-term technical indicators show the RSI( at 59.99, in a neutral to slightly bullish zone, not yet overbought, implying room for further upward movement.

However, there is a hidden risk: the technical momentum signals have not clearly shifted, indicating that while upward energy exists, it lacks confirmation. In other words, ETH might hover around 3100, bouncing back and forth rather than breaking through decisively. If a breakout occurs with significant volume (currently about $377.71M in 24-hour trading volume), chain reactions of liquidation could accelerate; but if it’s just a tentative push, it might be a false breakout.

Will the Liquidation Happen on Time? Depends on Two Factors

For Ethereum to truly surge past $3100 and trigger the chain liquidation of 629 million USD in shorts, two conditions must be met simultaneously:

First, a volume confirmation. If a strong breakout volume appears, the liquidation could cascade like dominoes, potentially pushing Ethereum higher. But if it’s just a superficial touch of 3100, bears could easily reassert control and pull prices back.

Second, macro support. Current trade negotiations contain uncertainties. If negative news emerges, Ethereum could fall back to the support level of $2950. This indicates that short-term profit-taking pressure always exists.

Practical Advice for Traders

• Bullish traders: Wait for volume confirmation before adding positions; avoid rushing into risky breakouts.
• Short sellers: Set stop-loss orders, as the warning of 629 million USD in short liquidations is already formidable.
• Observers: Monitor macro events and position data changes, as these will directly influence the next move.

The conclusion is simple: whether $3100 will trigger a liquidation wave depends on which side’s resolve is stronger. Currently, sentiment leans bullish, but technicals still show caution. This “lack of decisiveness” often leads to market oscillations.

This article is for market analysis sharing and does not constitute investment advice. Trading involves risks; please proceed cautiously.