Gold price forecast for tomorrow and the next contract: Are we expecting a jump to $5000?

Gold achieved in 2025 what most analysts did not expect – a comprehensive jump of over 50% since the beginning of the year, reaching a historic peak of $4,381 per ounce in mid-October. This exceptional performance raises a puzzling question: Will this crazy rally continue in 2026, or are we witnessing a bubble close to bursting?

The actual numbers speak: How did gold get here?

Let’s go back a little. During 2024, gold was not just a commodity moving randomly. The year started at around $2,251, then gradually rose to $2,450 by mid-year. By the end of the third quarter, it had reached $2,672, and in October, it jumped to $2,785. 2024 closed above $2,660.

Now, in 2025, the picture is completely different:

The real surge came from September onward. In just two months, the price rose from $3,770 to $4,381 – an increase of 16% in a very short period.

What do the biggest banks and financial institutions say?

When it comes to predicting gold prices tomorrow and in the coming years, major institutions do not speak randomly:

JPMorgan: sees an average price of $5,000 by 2026, with an expectation of $4,900 in the last quarter of the same year.

Goldman Sachs: predicts $4,000 as a minimum in mid-2026, but the optimistic scenario reaches $4,900.

Morgan Stanley: expects gold to reach $4,500 by mid-2026.

Standard Chartered: forecasts $4,300 by the end of 2025, then $4,500 within 12 months.

Bank of America: sets a target price of $4,000 for Q3 2026.

HSBC: sees the possibility of reaching $5,000.

ANZ: expects $4,400 by the end of 2025 and $4,600 by mid-2026.

The clear lesson from these forecasts: most institutions bet on continued rise, but with varying levels of optimism.

What truly drives gold prices?

1. Inflation remains a common blame

Inflation rate in September 2025 reached 3% annually – higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. This means gold remains the primary weapon to defend the value of savings. When you feel your currency is losing its strength, where do you go? To gold.

2. Weakening US dollar

A strong dollar means weaker gold – and vice versa. With the prolonged government shutdown and accommodative monetary policies, the dollar has become weaker than usual. This weakness means global investors buy gold at “cheaper” prices in their local currencies.

3. Central banks buying voraciously

Central banks in emerging markets, especially in Asia, have flooded the gold market with massive purchases. This is not a random decision – it’s a strategic shift toward diversifying reserves away from the dollar.

4. Geopolitics play their part

Global conflicts and regional tensions create an ideal environment for safe havens. Gold is not political – it cannot be “frozen” or “punished” like other assets. This makes it the first choice for countries and individuals fearing instability.

5. Investment funds (ETFs) pour in money

Since the COVID pandemic, funds flowing heavily into gold ETFs. These flows are not just numbers – they translate into actual demand for physical gold.

Possible scenarios for 2026: rally or correction?

Scenario 1: Continued bullish trend (Likelihood: 60%)

If stimulus policies persist, inflation remains high, and the Federal Reserve stops raising interest rates aggressively, gold will continue to rise. In this case, $4,500–$5,000 is entirely realistic.

Scenario 2: Painful correction (Likelihood: 30%)

If the US Federal Reserve suddenly raises interest rates or inflation drops quickly, gold may retreat toward $3,500–$3,700.

Scenario 3: Balance and volatility (Likelihood: 10%)

Gold may hover around $4,000 for a long time, achieving no huge gains but also avoiding major losses.

Risks threatening the rally

Don’t forget there are factors that could turn the tables:

• Unexpected Fed decisions: any signal of rate hikes will immediately pressure gold.
• End of geopolitical conflicts: global political calm may reduce safe-haven demand.
• Investor shifts: mass exit from gold into stocks or cryptocurrencies could trigger a sharp correction.

Practical strategies for investing in gold now

For short-term investors: CFDs (CFDs)

If you bet on daily or weekly movements, CFDs offer high flexibility:

• Trade without actual ownership
• Use leverage (with extreme caution)
• Profit from both rising and falling prices

Real example: if the price is at $4,000 and you expect it to rise to $4,100, you can open a small position and earn $100 per ounce. But remember – losses occur just as quickly.

For long-term investors: bullion and gold-backed ETFs

Buy physical bullion or ETFs backed by real gold. This is slower but safer. It avoids leverage risks and maintains actual ownership.

Golden tips before investing

1. Don’t put all your money in gold Gold should be part of a diversified portfolio – perhaps 10-15% of your total investments.

2. Understand why you buy Are you hedging against inflation? Or betting on short-term price movements? Each goal requires a different strategy.

3. Monitor interest rate and inflation data These are the real drivers. Watch Federal Reserve schedules and inflation reports.

4. Don’t act emotionally When the price jumps $100 in a day, the urge to sell or buy immediately arises. Resist these impulses.

Conclusion: Is gold a wise investment now?

Gold forecasts for 2026 indicate a likelihood of continued rise, with caution about potential volatility. Major financial institutions are betting on $4,500–$5,000 – numbers based on thorough research, not guesswork.

But remember: gold is not an “investment” in the traditional sense. It’s insurance. Insurance against inflation, crises, and uncertainty. The real value of gold shows when everything else falls apart – and in those times, you won’t wish you didn’t own any.

If your current portfolio lacks protection from inflation and uncertainty, it may be time to consider adding gold. And the current timing? Not bad at all.