Year-end 2025 Gold Continues Breaking Records: Where Will It Go Next?

**Analyzing the Current Gold Price Situation: From Bright to Brighter**

Looking at the gold movements in October 2025, the term "hot" seems insufficient. The XAUUSD benchmark broke through the $4,000 per ounce level dramatically, reaching a new historic high of $4,181 on October 20, 2025.

This is not just an ordinary adjustment but a stealth profit surge. Since the beginning of this year, gold prices have increased by over 66% in just 7 months, climbing from $3,000 to $4,000. Compared to the previous period, which took 14 months to move from $2,000 to $3,000, this momentum indicates relentless buying pressure into gold.

In Thailand, 96.5% gold bars also reached a new high, soaring past 62,000 THB, prompting many analysts who targeted 55,000 THB to urgently revise their forecasts.

## Why Are Prices Shooting Up Like This? Deep Dive into 4 Key Factors

### Factor 1: Imbalance from Global Trade

Trade tensions became real when President Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1, 2025. China responded by expanding controls on rare earth exports and technology. This conflict created global market uncertainty, prompting investors worldwide to seek the "ultimate safe haven" — gold.

### Factor 2: Federal Reserve Rate Cuts

The Fed cut interest rates by 0.25% in September 2025, with signals of further cuts in October and December, weakening the dollar. When the dollar depreciates, gold priced in USD appears cheaper for holders of other currencies. Additionally, low interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, which pays no interest.

( Factor 3: Excessive Central Bank Gold Accumulation

This might be the strongest driver. Central banks, especially in emerging markets, have net purchased over 1,000 tons of gold annually for three consecutive years )2023-2025### and continue to buy in 2025. As a result, global gold reserves stand at 36,699 tons, the highest in decades.

This movement stems from a desire to reduce reliance on the US dollar (De-dollarization), echoing the 2022 Russian central bank asset freezes. Many countries see the danger in putting all eggs in one basket.

( Factor 4: BRICS Group Is Linking Currency Springs

Rumors suggest BRICS is preparing a digital currency backed by gold for member exchanges. This is a serious challenge to the US dollar, and Trump has warned of a 100% tariff on BRICS if this move succeeds. The expanding role of gold in the global financial system is becoming more imminent.

## Wall Street Major Players’ Opinions

) Goldman Sachs Leads the Charge

This investment bank has not kept quiet, recently raising its gold price target to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, up from the previous target of $4,300. Analyst Lina Thomas states that the main drivers are heavy central bank buying and ETF gold fund inflows.

Overall, Goldman Sachs has revised its 2025 year-end target to $3,300, up from $2,890, due to stronger-than-expected demand from central banks.

### UBS Also Shares the Same View

This Swiss financial institution initially forecasted gold to reach $3,500 by December 2025. Joni Teves, a strategist, indicates that the "accumulation pattern" by central banks is unprecedented. In 2024 alone, central banks added over 1,200 tons of gold reserves.

## In Thailand: Potential Price Outlook

If we convert the global target of $4,900 per ounce into Thai Baht, considering Thai 96.5% gold, the price could soar to 75,000–80,000 THB per Baht of gold by 2026. Although some profit-taking may occur along the way, the overall trend remains upward.

## Beware: Factors That Could Cause Gold Prices to Drop

While the main trend is bullish, risks can still materialize.

### Scenario 1: Peace Negotiation

If the US and China sit down to negotiate tariffs with good news, tensions could ease, and investors might stop fleeing to gold. Prices could reverse quickly.

( Scenario 2: Rapid Rise

After continuous gains for 8 weeks, gold investors might start taking profits. Overbought signals from technical indicators could turn dangerous.

) Scenario 3: US Dollar Strengthens

If the US economy outperforms expectations and the Fed delays rate cuts, the dollar could strengthen, putting downward pressure on gold. When dollar holdings strengthen, those holding other currencies will see gold prices rise in their local currencies.

### Scenario 4: Interest Rates Remain High

If inflation refuses to decline and the Fed maintains high interest rates for a prolonged period, gold (which pays no interest) will become less attractive.

## Technical Signals: Timing the Market

### RSI Indicator Overbought

Current gold prices show RSI in overbought territory, indicating excessive buying and a potential short-term correction. However, if buying pressure remains strong and RSI stays high, the bullish trend is still solid.

### Price Surge

A jump of over $250 in a few days signals strong buying momentum, which is positive for the outlook.

### Shooting Star Candlestick Pattern

A shooting star pattern on the chart may suggest a short-term reversal, but in a primary uptrend, this could just be a temporary pause.

## 3 Trading Strategies for the Current Situation

### Strategy 1: Buy on Dips (Buy the Dip)

Since gold has risen rapidly, a correction is possible. Therefore:
- Wait for the price to dip to support levels at $3,859 or $3,782
- Confirm with technical tools like RSI approaching 50 or MACD showing bullish divergence
- Set stop-loss below $3,750
- Take profit at recent highs of $4,059 or $4,084–$4,113

### Strategy 2: Test New Breakouts

When gold breaks through key levels, it may retest:
- Wait for the price to retest support at $3,980–$4,000
- Confirm that this level holds with increased volume and price bounce
- Enter long when candles turn positive, with a stop-loss at $3,950
- Target: $4,059 and up to $4,100

### Strategy 3: Fibonacci-Based Trading

Use Fibonacci retracement levels to find support:
- Draw Fibonacci from the low around $3,500 to the high of $4,059
- Buy at 38.2% or 61.8% retracement levels
- Place stop-loss below the next Fibonacci level

## Summary: Gold Still Has More to Come, But Timing Is Key

**Main signals** indicate that gold prices will continue their bullish trend in 2025–2026. Goldman Sachs projects reaching $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, with UBS, J.P. Morgan, and ANZ sharing similar views. This suggests that in Thailand, gold prices could soar to 75,000–80,000 THB per Baht of gold.

However, gold is a sensitive asset, influenced by trade, interest rates, and dollar value. If you plan to buy gold today or next year, be prepared for volatile swings. The big trend still points to **real gold** — if you catch the right moments and manage risks well, your decision-making could write a longer story than just holding gold.