Bitcoin has retreated to the $90,000 mark, with the total market capitalization rebounding to $3.1 trillion. From exchange sentiment data, the market has eased from "extreme fear" to "fear" levels. However, when it comes to genuine signs of optimism, they are still not very apparent.

This wave of upward movement lacks strong support from bottom-volume, and ETF inflow data has not kept pace—on the contrary, there has been a continuous net outflow of $4.5 billion over the past two months, hitting a new historical low. In other words, new capital has not truly entered the market yet. Under these circumstances, the rapid price increase is more likely due to exhausted sell orders causing a low-cost rally, or institutional manipulation to induce more buying. We need to stay rational and not mistake reflexive muscle movements in the ICU for the patient actually waking up.

On the macro level, there are a few pieces of information worth noting. First is the personnel change at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission—Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw, who has long opposed crypto assets, has resigned. This is indeed a positive signal. Although regulatory framework improvements are a slow process, the direction is beginning to loosen, as if long-standing policy resistance is being gradually removed one after another.

Meanwhile, the international political situation is quietly influencing market expectations. Countries like Iran are seeking ways to bypass traditional financial sanctions, with cryptocurrencies being incorporated into their strategic options. This further highlights the importance of digital assets as a global financial infrastructure, especially amid escalating geopolitical tensions.

Overall, although the short-term rebound is not yet solid, improvements in the regulatory environment and increasing international demand are laying the groundwork for long-term positive prospects.