Regarding stock investing, I want to share some recent thoughts. Ultimately, buying stocks is essentially buying a company. Being listed or not simply provides convenience for exit, but does not change the intrinsic value of the company itself.



To measure how much a company is worth, look at how much cash flow it can generate in the future. Discounting these future cash flows to today’s value is the intrinsic value of the company. As an investor, you should only buy when the stock price is significantly below this intrinsic value. As for what "significantly" means—whether a 40% discount, 50%, or another figure—completely depends on your other investment opportunities—that's the consideration of the margin of safety.

However, there's an easily overlooked point: calculating intrinsic value is not just a simple math problem. Using a calculator to precisely derive it is a misconception. It’s more of a way of thinking—a rational judgment about the company's future.

To accurately assess a company's value, you must first acknowledge your knowledge boundaries. Only invest in fields and companies you truly understand (the circle of competence principle); this is a prerequisite. At the same time, a "moat" is a key indicator of whether a company can maintain its competitive advantage over the long term. Corporate culture is often the deepest moat—it's hard to imagine a company with a diffuse culture building a real competitive barrier.

Finally, in the face of daily market fluctuations, maintaining rationality is very important. Regularly review your investment logic for each position and see if it still holds. These principles sound simple, but executing them is actually quite difficult.
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ThatsNotARugPullvip
· 01-05 19:58
It sounds good, but how many people truly stick to "only investing in what they understand"... Most only realize after they've been taken advantage of.
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StakeWhisperervip
· 01-05 09:50
That's right, I agree most with the ability circle part. Too many people are pulled into unfamiliar tracks by FOMO, then make a series of aggressive moves, only to end up losing their pants. The discounted cash flow theory sounds simple, but when it comes to actual calculations... who can accurately predict performance five years from now? Isn't that just gambling? The moat point really hit me; corporate culture determines everything, this is true. You can guess a company's future ceiling just by looking at the management's attitude. Isn't a larger margin of safety always better? I think the key is not to go all-in on any single target; no matter how you think about it, that's the safest way to operate. Regarding market volatility, you still need to practice patience. Otherwise, checking K-line charts every day will raise your blood pressure, and you'll have no energy left to think about the investment logic itself.
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RugPullSurvivorvip
· 01-05 00:45
The capabilities circle was explained perfectly. I used to pretend to understand and got cut a few times... Now I only engage in tracks I truly understand. Many projects are tempting, but I hold back. Honestly, the internal value theory isn't very useful in crypto, but the approach can be referenced.
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consensus_whisperervip
· 01-04 06:31
Basically, you need to find companies with stable cash flow and a strong moat, but the problem is that most people can't judge accurately at all. The ability to stay within your circle of competence really bottlenecks you; I've seen too many people overestimate what they understand. Execution is difficult. It all sounds right, but when volatility hits, it's still easy to panic.
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BearMarketLightningvip
· 01-03 06:53
Uh... to put it simply, you still need to find a truly profitable business, don't be fooled by the numbers on the books. It feels a bit like Buffett, but in reality, how many people can really stick with it? There are many times when you'll get slapped in the face. As for the moat, I agree. The real challenge is figuring out which company's culture is genuinely deep and which is just pretending.
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SerumSqueezervip
· 01-03 06:52
To be honest, the capability circle is really crucial... I've seen too many people rely on calculators to hard calculate intrinsic value, only to be fooled by their own precise numbers. Using a calculator? That's better than nothing, but it's even better to look at corporate culture and moat—these are the things that truly determine long-term trends.
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TokenomicsDetectivevip
· 01-03 06:52
Well said, but how many people can truly invest within their circle of competence... I'm just asking, can you clearly explain the cash flow model of the companies you currently hold?
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MevWhisperervip
· 01-03 06:51
Basically, you need to have your own circle of competence. Relying on mathematical models blindly is less reliable than understanding the company's culture.
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SolidityStrugglervip
· 01-03 06:27
Honestly, trying to precisely calculate intrinsic value on-chain is just fooling oneself; it still comes down to intuition. I have deep experience with the capability circle; only after stepping into many pits did I understand. The moat is the most critical, but most people simply can't see it. To put it nicely, there are very few who truly grasp the risks. Discounted cash flow sounds professional, but in reality, it's just gambling on the future. This logical framework is just as applicable in the crypto world, only the parameters have changed. The boundary of knowledge is a very honest perspective, but unfortunately, during execution, it is often overwhelmed by FOMO.
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