Prediction markets are like a large-scale digital competition, and the "result determination" is the whistle that decides the outcome. But in reality, things are often awkward: the event has ended, yet everyone is still arguing over who the true winner is, and the whistle has yet to blow.
This "result dispute" has long been a chronic issue in prediction markets. Moving into 2025, everything from geopolitical events to technological advancements can be bet on. However, when faced with complex situations—such as interrupted matches due to weather but with some valid results, or election vote counts leading but legal cases still ongoing—traditional oracles start to fail, either crashing systems or suffering from overly lengthy governance processes.
Why is this deadlock so hard to break? Because the core issue is not about data collection. Anyone can gather data; the real challenge is "understanding the true meaning of the facts."
From another perspective, if traditional decentralized oracles are like a thermometer that only reads numbers, then the next-generation solutions should be like a judge equipped with a think tank—able to see the data and also understand the context. The key is to establish a multi-dimensional "consensus verification system."
What exactly does this involve? The first step is layered filtering at the technical level. No longer relying on a single data source, but introducing a network of specialized verification nodes. These nodes are responsible not only for uploading data but also for deeply interpreting the context and boundary conditions behind the data. In this way, decisions in complex scenarios are backed by sufficient reasoning, naturally reducing the scope of disputes.
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PonziWhisperer
· 01-06 01:12
Basically, it's just that the oracle is too weak; it relies entirely on guesswork for data reading and judgment.
This whistle can't be blown out, and the big players are laughing happily.
Multi-dimensional verification sounds good, but governance might become a new pitfall.
In reality, there are too many stakeholders, and no one wants to admit defeat.
Relying on node deep analysis? Isn't that just another round of power struggle over discourse?
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ChainDoctor
· 01-05 18:25
Isn't this just the old problem of prediction markets? More data, but no one dares to make a judgment.
Basically, it's still missing a "mediator" with authority...
Oracles have an inherent flaw; no matter how decentralized, they can't escape it.
This multi-dimensional consensus sounds good in theory, but in practice, it's another story.
Having some value is better than millions being locked up right now.
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VitalikFanboy42
· 01-05 06:40
Oracles are starting to shift the blame again, with too many unclear issues
The nice term is "Consensus Verification," but essentially it still means paying more
Can we really trust such complicated things? It feels like just hyping up a big dream
By the time the hype can't be sustained, the price has already dropped...
Multi-dimensional verification sounds impressive, but in the end, it's still human judgment
If a single data source has problems, what happens when multiple nodes clash?
They want both judges and think tanks—who will bear the cost?
If this theory were truly useful, no one would have been caught in market predictions long ago
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GasGrillMaster
· 01-03 04:51
I understand the feeling of blowing this whistle too well. The last election result was just ridiculous.
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Again with the judge mode and think tank... honestly, it still comes down to relying on people. Mechanism design ultimately can't be avoided.
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Indeed, a single data source is a real cancer, but how do multiple verification nodes ensure they don't cheat together?
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Oracles are becoming increasingly complex... it seems the crypto world insists on making simple things complicated.
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So essentially, what we need are smarter oracles—understanding context rather than just transporting data. This idea makes sense.
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Getting back on track, can this consensus verification really be implemented? Or is it just talk on paper?
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Some prediction markets recently just shut down, and the problem was exactly that... the judgment was vague, and in the end, it was left unfinished.
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LowCapGemHunter
· 01-03 04:51
That's right, oracles are currently the bottleneck.
It sounds like another complex system, and I'm not sure if it can really be implemented.
At this rate, it's better to set up an manual arbitration system, at least someone takes the blame.
Multi-node validation sounds good, but who will define the "true meaning"? Someone still needs to make the call.
Prediction markets are basically gambling; there's no need to make it so complicated—just put it on the chain directly.
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EthMaximalist
· 01-03 04:44
This whistle sound issue hits too close to home; the prediction market really always gets stuck at "who calls the shots"
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The analogy of thermometer vs judge is excellent, but the question is who will be the judge? Decentralization itself is a paradox
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Multidimensional consensus sounds good, but in practice, it depends on who defines the "background"
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To put it simply, it's still a governance issue; technology is just a smokescreen
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Node verification networks sound easy, but adding verification layers just increases latency. Who will bear this trade-off?
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Last year, the chaos of disputes on Polymarket wasn't resolved well, and now it's happening again?
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In-depth analysis of the data background... sounds impressive, but who will ensure that these "deep analyses" themselves are not manipulated?
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It's really just about using more complex systems to cover the vulnerabilities of simple systems. I think it's just self-deception
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HorizonHunter
· 01-03 04:43
That's right, it's that "whistle can't be blown" problem... It always takes a long time to settle, so annoying.
Makes sense, but this multi-dimensional consensus sounds pretty complicated. Is it reliable?
Oracles are inherently a weakness in market prediction. This time, at least someone is thinking about improving it.
The key still depends on how it's implemented. Not all teams are trustworthy...
The thermometer judge analogy is pretty good, but I'm worried they'll come up with a new bottleneck again.
It's really just about the concentration of data interpretation rights. Dispersing them can truly avoid disputes.
Sounds reasonable, but will validators start arguing with each other again?
This problem does exist, but I doubt the new scheme can handle governance in complex situations.
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RektButStillHere
· 01-03 04:34
Basically, it still depends on multi-dimensional verification to break the deadlock.
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I've been fed up with oracle chain failures for a long time.
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The judge mode is indeed much smarter than a thermometer, I agree.
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The question is, who will define the "true meaning of facts"? Who do we trust again?
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Verification node networks sound good, but I'm afraid they'll just become a game for interest groups.
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This can't solve the fundamental problem; it's still the human factor.
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In-depth analysis? Sounds like it will cost more again, right?
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CascadingDipBuyer
· 01-03 04:33
I understand very well the things that can't be blown out of this whistle. The election dispute I bet on earlier still hasn't had a conclusion.
The analogy of the think tank judge is excellent; it's just that traditional oracle brains are too straightforward.
Multidimensional verification sounds good, but could it be just a new bottle with old wine? It depends on actual implementation.
The current question is, who will define the "true meaning of facts"? It's not like no one has tried before.
It still feels like an unavoidable利益博弈 (interest game); no matter how fancy the technology is, it can't change that.
Why doesn't anyone go straight to decentralization? Why bother with a consensus system?
If this方案 (plan) really works, prediction markets will be revolutionary, but I bet five bucks it will get stuck in governance again.
Verification node networks sound like reinventing DAO, just with a different name.
Prediction markets are like a large-scale digital competition, and the "result determination" is the whistle that decides the outcome. But in reality, things are often awkward: the event has ended, yet everyone is still arguing over who the true winner is, and the whistle has yet to blow.
This "result dispute" has long been a chronic issue in prediction markets. Moving into 2025, everything from geopolitical events to technological advancements can be bet on. However, when faced with complex situations—such as interrupted matches due to weather but with some valid results, or election vote counts leading but legal cases still ongoing—traditional oracles start to fail, either crashing systems or suffering from overly lengthy governance processes.
Why is this deadlock so hard to break? Because the core issue is not about data collection. Anyone can gather data; the real challenge is "understanding the true meaning of the facts."
From another perspective, if traditional decentralized oracles are like a thermometer that only reads numbers, then the next-generation solutions should be like a judge equipped with a think tank—able to see the data and also understand the context. The key is to establish a multi-dimensional "consensus verification system."
What exactly does this involve? The first step is layered filtering at the technical level. No longer relying on a single data source, but introducing a network of specialized verification nodes. These nodes are responsible not only for uploading data but also for deeply interpreting the context and boundary conditions behind the data. In this way, decisions in complex scenarios are backed by sufficient reasoning, naturally reducing the scope of disputes.