#比特币价格预测 Seeing Hayes' remarks, my first reaction isn't excitement but familiarity. I've seen this logic after the 2008 financial crisis and during the 2020 pandemic outbreak—whenever central banks loosen monetary policy, the market begins to weave the same story: liquidity flood → fiat currency depreciation → asset scarcity → crypto as a safe haven.

RMP indeed closely resembles QE in form, and Hayes' analytical framework is impeccable. The figure of $124,000 even has historical reference value. But there's a detail worth pondering—while he is loudly bullish, he quietly transferred $1.5 million worth of ETH during the rebound. This subtle mismatch between actions and words is something I've seen too many times in this market.

The cycle over the past decade tells me that price prediction is often the easiest thing to get wrong. During the 2017 bull run, many confidently predicted $100,000 or $200,000, but none of those came true. 2021 brought another narrative. What truly matters isn't specific numerical forecasts but understanding the liquidity logic behind them—Hayes didn't get this wrong.

In the short term, a fluctuation range of $80,000–$100,000 might be more worth paying attention to. History shows that these "transition zones" are often the most brutal for shakeouts. The market's sentiment peak in March also roughly aligns with market patterns, but whether the bottom is truly above $124,000 depends on how quickly the global macro situation changes—no one can predict this precisely.

The underlying logic is sound, but numbers will always be less convincing than understanding the essence of the cycle.